• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
๐Ÿ’ฌ
Top Comments
๐Ÿ’ก
Comments Feed
๐Ÿ“ˆ
Indexes
๐Ÿ†
Leaderboards
โš™๏ธ
Labor Hub
๐Ÿฆพ
FutureEval
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
US Midterms
โš”๏ธ
Metaculus Cup
๐Ÿ’ฅ
Iran War
โ“
Top Questions
๐Ÿ—ž๏ธ
Current Events
๐Ÿ’ผ
Economy & Business
๐Ÿ›๏ธ
Politics
๐ŸŒ
Geopolitics
โš™๏ธ
Technology
๐Ÿค–
Artificial Intelligence
๐Ÿฆ 
Health & Pandemics
๐Ÿ’ป
Computing and Math
๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ
Elections
๐ŸŒฑ
Environment & Climate
๐Ÿ”ฌ
Natural Sciences
๐Ÿ€
Sports & Entertainment
โš–๏ธ
Law
๐Ÿš€
Space
๐Ÿง‘โ€๐Ÿคโ€๐Ÿง‘
Social Sciences
๐Ÿ”ฎ
Metaculus
โ˜ข๏ธ
Nuclear Technology & Risks
๐Ÿ’ฐ
Cryptoยญcurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestionsTournamentsTournaments for AI botsFutureEval
ServicesLaunch a TournamentPrivate InstancesPro Forecasters
CompanyAboutCareersFAQ
ResourcesForecasting ResourcesFor JournalistsAPI
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use

What is the next planet, besides Earth or Mars, that a human being will reach?

3
44 comments
12
12 forecasters

Will we find life on Mars by 2050?

12.5% chance

35
1818 comments
207
207 forecasters
12.5%chance

Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045?

20% chance

34
3636 comments
293
293 forecasters
20%chance

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

result: no

3
44 comments
60
60 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?

20% chance

56
9191 comments
2k
2k forecasters
20%chance

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

16
2222 comments
114
114 forecasters

If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?

2.97 (2.01 - 5.8)

9
3838 comments
63
63 forecasters
2.97
(2.01 - 5.8)

Will we find another inhabitable planet by 2040?

5% chance

3
44 comments
11
11 forecasters
5%chance

When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?

Aug 2058 (Apr 2037 - >2250)

22
4444 comments
170
170 forecasters
Aug 2058
(Apr 2037 - >2250)

Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?

0.3% chance

40
3636 comments
342
342 forecasters
0.3%chance

Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2030?

50% chance

29
1111 comments
134
134 forecasters
50%chance

If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?

12% chance

8
88 comments
58
58 forecasters
12%chance

Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?

90% chance

51
4949 comments
255
255 forecasters
90%chance

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

1% chance

5
0 comments
51
51 forecasters
1%chance

Interstellar Material Discovered at IM1 Site? โ†’ Evidence of Alien Tech Recovered at IM1 Site?

2
22 comments
15
15 forecasters

When will the first human be born on another world?

Apr 2068 (Sep 2044 - 2141)

27
1010 comments
145
145 forecasters
Apr 2068
(Sep 2044 - 2141)

Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?

0.1% chance

4
2525 comments
71
71 forecasters
0.1%chance

Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?

16
4343 comments
69
69 forecasters

When will someone first be convicted of a murder that occurred outside of Earth's atmosphere?

Dec 2075 (Feb 2054 - 2112)

11
1717 comments
44
44 forecasters
Dec 2075
(Feb 2054 - 2112)

When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?

2583 (Aug 2075 - >9999)

20
2323 comments
125
125 forecasters
2583
(Aug 2075 - >9999)

To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?

result: no

83
2424 comments
301
301 forecasters
ResolvedNo

A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?

result: no

8
1818 comments
124
124 forecasters
ResolvedNo