Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments281281 forecasters
When Will India Approve Its First Novel Food Application For A Cultivated Meat?23 Dec 2026 (29 Jun 2026 - 19 Jun 2027)0 comments11 forecaster23 Dec 2026 (29 Jun 2026 - 19 Jun 2027)
When Will The EU Approve Its First Novel Food Application For Cultivated Meat?23 Oct 2028 (28 Jul 2027 - 21 May 2030)0 comments22 forecasters23 Oct 2028 (28 Jul 2027 - 21 May 2030)
Will there be an open-source repository of tools for alternative protein production before 2030?50% chance44 comments99 forecasters50%chance
2030: open-source repo for alt-protein? → 2035: alternative protein market share >25%?0 comments44 forecasters
Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?30% chance81717 comments105105 forecasters30%chance
Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized before 2030?25% chance244 comments8888 forecasters25%chance
If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?26% chance307777 comments9494 forecastersAmbiguous