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When will Altos Labs first trial an anti-aging intervention in humans?

09 Aug 2030 (29 Jul 2028 - Aug 2033)

12

20

20 forecasters

09 Aug 2030

(29 Jul 2028 - Aug 2033)

Will there be an FDA-approved cure for Type 1 diabetes before January 1, 2032?

15% chance

2

21

21 forecasters

15%chance

Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

9% chance

1

765

765 forecasters

9%chance

What will be the lower 95% confidence bound for the vaccine efficacy of the M72 tuberculosis vaccine in the Phase 3 Gates MRI trial?

18.8% (7.13 - 30.6)

1

19

19 forecasters

18.8%

(7.13 - 30.6)

What vaccine efficacy will the MTBVAC tuberculosis vaccine show in the IMAGINE phase 2 clinical trial?

35.4% (21.3 - 50.9)

2

19

19 forecasters

35.4%

(21.3 - 50.9)

What will be the lower confidence bound for the vaccine efficacy of the MTBVAC tuberculosis vaccine in the IMAGINE Phase 2 clinical trial?

0.89% (<0 - 13.5)

18

18 forecasters

0.89%

(<0 - 13.5)

What vaccine efficacy will the M72 tuberculosis vaccine show in the Phase 3 Gates MRI trial?

45.7% (34.9 - 55.6)

1

20

20 forecasters

45.7%

(34.9 - 55.6)

Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before January 1, 2030?

33% chance

42

156

156 forecasters

33%chance

Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?

49% chance

7

34

34 forecasters

49%chance

Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?

80% chance

8

29

29 forecasters

80%chance

How many cluster-randomized trials will be published before 2027 assessing whether far-UVC reduces transmission of airborne pathogens?

1.42 CRT (0.748 - 2.59)

1

5

5 forecasters

1.42 CRT

(0.748 - 2.59)

When will pig-to-human xenotransplantation become a routine medical procedure?

Apr 2042 (Jan 2035 - Oct 2047)

6

14

14 forecasters

Apr 2042

(Jan 2035 - Oct 2047)

Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?

result: no

14

118

118 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform receive FDA approval before 2035?

50% chance

2

8

8 forecasters

50%chance

Allogeneic cell therapy FDA approved by 2035? → Will cancer mortality ↓ by 50% by 2051?

1

9

9 forecasters

When will the first medical treatment based on nanorobots happen?

Oct 2031 (27 Jan 2029 - Jun 2035)

9

13

13 forecasters

Oct 2031

(27 Jan 2029 - Jun 2035)

Will the cancer pill AOH1996 enter Phase III clinical trials before January 1, 2027?

8% chance

5

15

15 forecasters

8%chance

Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?

result: no

8

61

61 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?

53% chance

3

20

20 forecasters

53%chance

Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?

result: no

21

149

149 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?

result: yes

4

50

50 forecasters

ResolvedYes

At last? Clinical trials of a vaccine for the common cold?

result: no

11

50

50 forecasters

ResolvedNo