When will Altos Labs first trial an anti-aging intervention in humans?20 Aug 2030 (14 Jul 2028 - Nov 2033)1233 comments2020 forecasters20 Aug 2030 (14 Jul 2028 - Nov 2033)
When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?30 Oct 2030 (09 Nov 2027 - Sep 2035)202727 comments9696 forecasters30 Oct 2030 (09 Nov 2027 - Sep 2035)
Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?25% chance12121 comments767767 forecasters25%chance
Will a clinical trial begin by the end of 2017 using CRISPR to genetically modify a living human?result: yes532222 comments144144 forecastersResolvedYes
Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before January 1, 2030?33% chance423636 comments157157 forecasters33%chance
What vaccine efficacy will the MTBVAC tuberculosis vaccine show in the IMAGINE phase 2 clinical trial?35.1% (21.2 - 50.4)22121 comments2020 forecasters35.1% (21.2 - 50.4)
What will be the lower confidence bound for the vaccine efficacy of the MTBVAC tuberculosis vaccine in the IMAGINE Phase 2 clinical trial?0.266% (<0 - 12.7)2020 comments1919 forecasters0.266% (<0 - 12.7)
What will be the lower 95% confidence bound for the vaccine efficacy of the M72 tuberculosis vaccine in the Phase 3 Gates MRI trial?18.3% (6.36 - 30)12424 comments2020 forecasters18.3% (6.36 - 30)
What vaccine efficacy will the M72 tuberculosis vaccine show in the Phase 3 Gates MRI trial?44.9% (33.7 - 54.9)11818 comments2121 forecasters44.9% (33.7 - 54.9)
Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?result: no81111 comments6161 forecastersResolvedNo
When will pig-to-human xenotransplantation become a routine medical procedure?Apr 2042 (Jan 2035 - Oct 2047)633 comments1313 forecastersApr 2042 (Jan 2035 - Oct 2047)
Will the cancer pill AOH1996 enter Phase III clinical trials before January 1, 2027?18% chance522 comments1414 forecasters18%chance
Will a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform receive FDA approval before 2035?46% chance211 comment99 forecasters46%chance
Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?result: no1466 comments118118 forecastersResolvedNo
Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?result: no2188 comments149149 forecastersResolvedNo
How many cluster-randomized trials will be published before 2027 assessing whether far-UVC reduces transmission of airborne pathogens?1.12 CRT (0.467 - 2.09)155 comments55 forecasters1.12 CRT (0.467 - 2.09)
Will there be an FDA-approved cure for Type 1 diabetes before January 1, 2032?15.6% chance288 comments2121 forecasters15.6%chance
Allogeneic cell therapy FDA approved by 2035? → Will cancer mortality ↓ by 50% by 2051?10 comments99 forecasters
When will the first medical treatment based on nanorobots happen?Oct 2031 (27 Jan 2029 - Jun 2035)988 comments1313 forecastersOct 2031 (27 Jan 2029 - Jun 2035)
Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?61.7% chance344 comments2121 forecasters61.7%chance
Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?60% chance622 comments3434 forecasters60%chance