Question Feed | Metaculus

Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Health & Pandemics

Computing and Math

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Sports & Entertainment

🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Social Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Cryptocurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

24 Sep 2027 (20 Sep 2026 11:58 - 05 Jun 2030)

223

664 664 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

24 Sep 2027

(20 Sep 2026 11:58 - 05 Jun 2030)

CTs Deep Learning Revenue → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

1

20

20 forecasters

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

98

98 forecasters

What percentage of Coefficient Giving's grantmaking will go to AI safety in the following years?

3

3 forecasters

Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?

69% chance

1

37

37 forecasters

69%chance

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

41

184 184 comments

285

285 forecasters

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

95% chance

39

249

249 forecasters

95%chance

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

12 Aug 2031 (07 Jul 2028 - Jun 2038)

220

665 665 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

12 Aug 2031

(07 Jul 2028 - Jun 2038)

Will a Chinese frontier model cross the U.S. AI frontier by at least 2 ECI points before 2029?

1

1 forecaster

%chance

Will an open weight AI model achieve Mythos-level cyber capabilities before July 2027?

80% chance

33

33 forecasters

80%chance

Will the following entities enact a liability law before October 1, 2027 for developers of AI systems that hack other systems?

15

15 forecasters

Will an AI "kill switch" bill pass both houses of the U.S. Congress before September 2027?

23% chance

29

29 forecasters

23%chance

What will be the US legal status of civil liability arising from autonomous AI conduct as of January 1, 2028?

9

9 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

25

334

334 forecasters

30%chance

Announcing: Forecasting the Upstart Macro Index - $10,000 Prize Pool

9

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

7

94

94 forecasters

When will an AI agent be able to win Portal 2 on its first run?

10 Sep 2027 (19 Dec 2026 - Oct 2031)

15

26

26 forecasters

10 Sep 2027

(19 Dec 2026 - Oct 2031)

Will mainland China host an operational AI data center exceeding one million H100-equivalents before 2029?

%chance

What will be the highest scores in these ΑΙ benchmarks before September 2026?

4

143

143 forecasters

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

11

53

53 forecasters

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

9

9 forecasters

Last Call: Labor Automation Comment Prize Closes September 1

2