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Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

1

Got Opinions on AI & Labor? The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize Deadline is September 1.

4

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

90% chance

5

49

49 forecasters

90%chance

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

13

83

83 forecasters

Build Your Own Forecasting Bot in 30 Minutes With Our Tutorial Video

8

Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

6

6 forecasters

%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

57

57 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

57

57 forecasters

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

3

40

40 forecasters

Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?

3

22

22 forecasters

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

10% chance

5

96

96 forecasters

10%chance

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

result: no

4

71

71 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

85% chance

5

59

59 forecasters

85%chance

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

7

44

44 forecasters

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

7

53

53 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

99% chance

23

144

144 forecasters

99%chance

Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?

result: yes

10

199

199 forecasters

ResolvedYes

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

43

43 forecasters

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

19

110

110 forecasters

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

result: no

3

26

26 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will there be a major AI-related healthcare class action lawsuit before 2028?

37% chance

4

84

84 forecasters

37%chance

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

20% chance

4

52

52 forecasters

20%chance