Question Feed | Metaculus

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

6

What will be the highest score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on August 31, 2026?

109

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

1

5

What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?

73.9 (69.5 - 78.1)

5

73.9

(69.5 - 78.1)

In 2029, will a single AI training run consume as much electricity in a month as a city of 100,000 people?

12

Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a higher valuation on January 1, 2027?

2

18

Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?

50% chance

7

50%chance

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

06 Jun 2028 (28 Oct 2026 - Feb 2032)

223

1.7k

06 Jun 2028

(28 Oct 2026 - Feb 2032)

What will be the highest scores in these ΑΙ benchmarks before September 2026?

4

143

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 Winners!

5

Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?

1

19

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

7

53

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

56

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

3

40

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

98% chance

3

182

98%chance

Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?

3

22

Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?

3

Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023?

7

23

Forecasting Tips, Tricks & Lessons Learned

Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?

result: yes

10

199

ResolvedYes

Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?

result: no

4

62

ResolvedNo

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

8

66

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

7

41

What will be the combined weight (%) of AI companies in the S&P 500 on February 27, 2026?

26.3% (25 - 27.7)

842

26.3%

(25 - 27.7)