When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?01 Sep 2027 (22 Sep 2026 - 04 Oct 2029)224684684 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters01 Sep 2027 (22 Sep 2026 - 04 Oct 2029)
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?60% chance111 comment1111 forecasters60%chance
Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?75% chance133 comments3030 forecasters75%chance
Which AI lab's model will rank #1 on the LMArena Text Arena overall leaderboard on October 1, 2026?174174 comments180180 forecasters
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?90% chance272828 comments155155 forecasters90%chance
Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?60% chance22222 comments5858 forecasters60%chance
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?29 Sep 2030 (23 Mar 2028 - Aug 2036)221671671 comments1.9k1.9k forecasters29 Sep 2030 (23 Mar 2028 - Aug 2036)
Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?11111 comments120120 forecasters
Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?97% chance396666 comments257257 forecasters97%chance
When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)32929 comments3333 forecasters<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?26.1 months (7.57 - 108)425252 comments358358 forecasters26.1 months (7.57 - 108)
Will an AI "kill switch" bill pass both houses of the U.S. Congress before September 2027?14.3% chance88 comments4242 forecasters14.3%chance
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45222222 comments332332 forecasters
What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?122M H100 Equivalents (97.5M - 145M)11 comment99 forecasters122M H100 Equivalents (97.5M - 145M)
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?71% chance644 comments7676 forecasters71%chance
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4444 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?40% chance64242 comments8686 forecasters40%chance
How many months behind the frontier will the best Chinese open-weights AI model be at the end of 2028?8.32 months (6.63 - 10.4)0 comments55 forecasters8.32 months (6.63 - 10.4)