Contributed by the AI Diffusion community.
0 comments
3 forecasters
What will be the total disclosed VC funding levels globally invested in AI startups during 2029?
Current estimate
924B $
0 comments
107 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
15%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
97 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
32%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
95 comments
95 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
resultNo
3 comments
58 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet32.7%
OpenAI23.2%
Anthropic18%
0 comments
98 forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
Latest estimate
46.3%
This question is closed for forecasting.
565 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
08 Oct 2027
7 comments
124 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
2 or 345.2%
0 or 140.1%
4 or 511.5%
18 comments
74 forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
54%chance
9% this week