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Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

7

AI Pathways Tournament

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

Not before 203144.4%

2029 or 203020.8%

2027 or 202818.9%

Will there be a major AI-related healthcare class action lawsuit before 2028?

Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?