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Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?

64% chance

6

6 forecasters

64%chance

Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?

4% chance

1

67

67 forecasters

4%chance

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

50% chance

5

34

34 forecasters

50%chance

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

85% chance

7

121

121 forecasters

85%chance

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7

Will any 2026 US-China AI agreement include semiconductor or compute export-control concessions?

9.2% chance

1

8

8 forecasters

9.2%chance

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

25% chance

6

82

82 forecasters

25%chance

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

04 Sep 2028 (19 Jan 2027 - May 2032)

224

628 628 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

04 Sep 2028

(19 Jan 2027 - May 2032)

How many of the 25 largest global companies will have a C-suite officer that specializes in AI, as of January 1, 2030?

13 companies (8 - 19)

11

11 forecasters

13 companies

(8 - 19)

Got Opinions on AI & Labor? The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize Deadline is September 1.

4

Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?

1

23

23 forecasters

When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?

<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - Jul 2032)

2

29

29 forecasters

<01 Jan 2030

(<01 Jan 2030 - Jul 2032)

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

81% chance

38

240

240 forecasters

81%chance

Hyperbolic takeoff

7

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

8

63

63 forecasters

Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

97.9% chance

23

23 forecasters

97.9%chance

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

9

14

14 forecasters

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?

18 Apr 2027 (02 Sep 2026 - 20 May 2028)

2

20

20 forecasters

18 Apr 2027

(02 Sep 2026 - 20 May 2028)

When will an AI system demonstrate full autonomy in software engineering and scientific research?

25 Apr 2028 (13 May 2027 - Jul 2032)

-2

14

14 forecasters

25 Apr 2028

(13 May 2027 - Jul 2032)

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030 → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

4

18

18 forecasters

Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?

75% chance

4

147

147 forecasters

75%chance