What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?72.7 (69.5 - 76.1)0 comments2727 forecasters72.7 (69.5 - 76.1)
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?16 Jun 2028 (13 Nov 2026 - Feb 2032)223618618 comments1.7k1.7k forecasters16 Jun 2028 (13 Nov 2026 - Feb 2032)
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments2626 forecasters
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?1% chance491717 comments437437 forecasters1%chance
What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?93.5 (89.4 - 96.8)52727 comments738738 forecasters93.5 (89.4 - 96.8)
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?96% chance41414 comments192192 forecasters96%chance
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?Jan 2033 (26 Apr 2029 - Jan 2041)219654654 comments1.9k1.9k forecastersJan 2033 (26 Apr 2029 - Jan 2041)
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?722 comments5454 forecasters
Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040? → US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?1122 comments5151 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40172172 comments276276 forecasters
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?85% chance66 comments3838 forecasters85%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?24% chance374545 comments467467 forecasters24%chance
If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?Mar 2038 (18 Jan 2031 - Oct 2053)351919 comments165165 forecastersMar 2038 (18 Jan 2031 - Oct 2053)
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters