3 comments
1 forecaster
Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?
Current estimate
Revealed in 2 days
97 comments
97 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
resultNo
3 comments
4 forecasters
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
21%chance
0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%
96 comments
183 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Sep 2031
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.
2 comments
11 forecasters
Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?
62.8%chance
95 comments
95 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
resultNo
