How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?10 comments77 forecasters
Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?50% chance33 comments99 forecasters50%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?722 comments5353 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?399 comments4040 forecasters
Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?result: yes104646 comments199199 forecastersResolvedYes
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4141 forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5151 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters25%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4141 forecasters
Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?622 comments3131 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?98% chance333 comments66 forecastersAnnulled
Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?711 comment2424 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?98% chance231313 comments142142 forecasters98%chance
How many of the 10 most important advancements in machine learning or artificial intelligence of 2025-2030 will have been discovered by an AI system?3.84 (1.35 - 7.74)166 comments1919 forecasters3.84 (1.35 - 7.74)
On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?222 comments1212 forecasters
Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?68% chance122 comments119119 forecasters68%chance
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?11% chance42626 comments5050 forecasters11%chance