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Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

117

117 forecasters

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

30 Sep 2027 (12 Jul 2026 - 06 Jun 2030)

96

647

647 forecasters

30 Sep 2027

(12 Jul 2026 - 06 Jun 2030)

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

Hyperbolic takeoff

7

By what date will an AI system demonstrate human-level accuracy in extracting data from all types of charts in documents?

18 Jun 2027 (27 Dec 2026 - 07 Feb 2028)

2

18

18 forecasters

18 Jun 2027

(27 Dec 2026 - 07 Feb 2028)

Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.

3

CTs Deep Learning Revenue → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

2

22

22 forecasters

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

7

54

54 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

result: yes

25

145

145 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

3

40

40 forecasters

Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?

80% chance

17

17 forecasters

80%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

63

63 forecasters

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

97% chance

257

193 193 comments

3k

3k forecasters

97%chance

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

53

53 forecasters

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

7

44

44 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

58

58 forecasters

When will an AI model capable of autonomously generating accurate and complete book summaries be commonly available?

21 Jun 2027 (07 Aug 2026 - 16 May 2028)

10

26

26 forecasters

21 Jun 2027

(07 Aug 2026 - 16 May 2028)

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

6

31

31 forecasters

How many of the 10 most important advancements in machine learning or artificial intelligence of 2025-2030 will have been discovered by an AI system?

3.84 (1.35 - 7.74)

1

19

19 forecasters

3.84

(1.35 - 7.74)

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

44% chance

38

477

477 forecasters

44%chance

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

42

42 forecasters