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Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7

Got Opinions on AI & Labor? The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize Deadline is September 1.

4

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

16 Jan 2028 (13 Aug 2026 10:15 - 01 Jul 2031)

96

642

642 forecasters

16 Jan 2028

(13 Aug 2026 10:15 - 01 Jul 2031)

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

26% chance

24

332

332 forecasters

26%chance

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

42

42 forecasters

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

99% chance

24

145

145 forecasters

99%chance

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

44

44 forecasters

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

19

111

111 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

58

58 forecasters

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

8

25

25 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

58

58 forecasters

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

96% chance

256

189 189 comments

3k

3k forecasters

96%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28% chance

37

471

471 forecasters

28%chance

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

98% chance

3

6

6 forecasters

Annulled

FutureEval Bot Tournament Resources Page

4

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

3

40

40 forecasters

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

3

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

71% chance

6

72

72 forecasters

71%chance

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

0.1% chance

10

128

128 forecasters

0.1%chance

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

7

53

53 forecasters

Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?

3

3 forecasters