0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
97 comments
184 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
3 comments
51 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
13 comments
130 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%chance
7 comments
34 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
2 or 344.8%
0 or 139.9%
4 or 511.2%
2 comments
36 forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
AMD5%
Nvidia5%
Google5%