When will an AI system demonstrate full autonomy in software engineering and scientific research?13 Jul 2029 (24 Oct 2027 - Mar 2042)-211 comment1212 forecasters13 Jul 2029 (24 Oct 2027 - Mar 2042)
Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?11 comment%chance
Got Opinions on AI & Labor? The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize Deadline is September 1.40 comments
Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?98% chance-10 comments2020 forecasters98%chance
When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)22222 comments2828 forecasters<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)
Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?98.1% chance331919 comments177177 forecasters98.1%chance
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?90 comments1313 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments281281 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4242 forecasters
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?17 Jan 2028 (16 Aug 2026 12:33 - 14 Jun 2031)967676 comments642642 forecasters17 Jan 2028 (16 Aug 2026 12:33 - 14 Jun 2031)
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?131919 comments8484 forecasters
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments4545 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?99% chance241414 comments145145 forecasters99%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments332332 forecasters30%chance
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?80 comments2525 forecasters
Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?111010 comments5252 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?30% chance374444 comments471471 forecasters30%chance