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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

13

91

91 forecasters

[TEST] MC probability bounds probe (delete me)

5

5 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

45

222 222 comments

331

331 forecasters

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub Forum

3

FutureEval Bot Tournament Resources Page

4

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

99.9% chance

39

420

420 forecasters

99.9%chance

The Market Pulse Challenge 26Q3 is Live!

2

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

95% chance

39

255

255 forecasters

95%chance

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

4

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

11

55

55 forecasters

When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?

<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)

3

32

32 forecasters

<01 Jan 2030

(<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)

By what date will an AI system demonstrate human-level accuracy in extracting data from all types of charts in documents?

18 Jun 2027 (27 Dec 2026 - 07 Feb 2028)

2

18

18 forecasters

18 Jun 2027

(27 Dec 2026 - 07 Feb 2028)

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

10 Oct 2027 (17 Jul 2026 - 25 Jun 2030)

96

647

647 forecasters

10 Oct 2027

(17 Jul 2026 - 25 Jun 2030)

The Market Pulse Challenge 26Q4 is Live!

2

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

117

117 forecasters

Last Call: Labor Automation Comment Prize Closes September 1

2

Hyperbolic takeoff

7

Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.

3

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

99% chance

26

242

242 forecasters

99%chance

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

7

54

54 forecasters

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

98% chance

6

20

20 forecasters

98%chance

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

result: yes

25

145

145 forecasters

ResolvedYes