How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?10 comments1111 forecasters
Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?50% chance133 comments1010 forecasters50%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?722 comments5353 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?399 comments4040 forecasters
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?322 comments2222 forecasters
Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?result: no422 comments6262 forecastersResolvedNo
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4141 forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5151 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?26% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters26%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters25%chance
*Closes Mar 31, 2026* Which company will own the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI (LMSYS) Text Leaderboard as of April 30, 2026?0 comments1010 forecasters
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?90% chance422 comments7070 forecasters90%chance
Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?111010 comments5050 forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo
When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?142020 comments3838 forecasters
When will the first company with a market cap above the given figures be openly run by an AI CEO?433 comments2525 forecasters