1 comment
4 forecasters
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
Current estimate
Revealed in 3 days
0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud20%
Microsoft Azure14%
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
8 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
7 comments
34 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
0 or 142.6%
2 or 341.8%
4 or 510.6%
72 comments
321 forecasters
Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?
17%chance
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
14 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
20%chance
10% this week