Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?25% chance64242 comments8181 forecasters25%chance
When will an AI system demonstrate full autonomy in software engineering and scientific research?10 Mar 2029 (25 Jul 2027 - Dec 2039)-211 comment1212 forecasters10 Mar 2029 (25 Jul 2027 - Dec 2039)
Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?11 comment%chance
Got Opinions on AI & Labor? The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize Deadline is September 1.40 comments
Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?98% chance-10 comments2121 forecasters98%chance
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?10% chance233 comments1818 forecasters10%chance
Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?98% chance331919 comments177177 forecasters98%chance
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments281281 forecasters
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?17 Jan 2028 (16 Aug 2026 12:33 - 14 Jun 2031)967676 comments642642 forecasters17 Jan 2028 (16 Aug 2026 12:33 - 14 Jun 2031)
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments4545 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?99% chance241414 comments145145 forecasters99%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments332332 forecasters30%chance
Will an AI shopping agent service achieve significant commercial deployment by December 31, 2026?95% chance111 comment2020 forecasters95%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?30% chance374444 comments471471 forecasters30%chance
Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?555 comments2424 forecasters
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?98% chance41616 comments211211 forecasters98%chance