How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?10 comments1111 forecasters
Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?50% chance133 comments1010 forecasters50%chance
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?96% chance41414 comments185185 forecasters96%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?722 comments5353 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?322 comments2222 forecasters
Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?result: yes104646 comments199199 forecastersResolvedYes
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?81717 comments6666 forecasters
Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?result: no422 comments6262 forecastersResolvedNo
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?26% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters26%chance
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4141 forecasters
Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?204242 comments7171 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters25%chance
Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024?152323 comments5858 forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025?466 comments2323 forecasters
When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?142020 comments3838 forecasters
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?06 Apr 2030 (09 Jan 2028 - Dec 2034)113838 comments113113 forecasters06 Apr 2030 (09 Jan 2028 - Dec 2034)