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Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

45

222 222 comments

331

331 forecasters

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub Forum

3

Hyperbolic takeoff

7

FutureEval Bot Tournament Resources Page

4

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

95% chance

39

255

255 forecasters

95%chance

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

57% chance

1

29

29 forecasters

57%chance

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

4

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

33% chance

6

85

85 forecasters

33%chance

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

7

44

44 forecasters

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

117

117 forecasters

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

10 Oct 2027 (17 Jul 2026 - 25 Jun 2030)

96

647

647 forecasters

10 Oct 2027

(17 Jul 2026 - 25 Jun 2030)

Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.

3

By what date will an AI system demonstrate human-level accuracy in extracting data from all types of charts in documents?

18 Jun 2027 (27 Dec 2026 - 07 Feb 2028)

2

18

18 forecasters

18 Jun 2027

(27 Dec 2026 - 07 Feb 2028)

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

result: yes

25

145

145 forecasters

ResolvedYes

CTs Deep Learning Revenue → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

2

22

22 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

63

63 forecasters

Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?

80% chance

18

18 forecasters

80%chance

Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery

20

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

88% chance

1

134

134 forecasters

88%chance

When will an AI system demonstrate full autonomy in software engineering and scientific research?

06 Feb 2028 (07 May 2027 - 21 Jul 2029)

-1

15

15 forecasters

06 Feb 2028

(07 May 2027 - 21 Jul 2029)

Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?

3

22

22 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

98% chance

3

6

6 forecasters

Annulled