14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
0 comments
29 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH16%
Microsoft Azure14%
Google Cloud12%
2 comments
38 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH27%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
559 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
27 May 2027
12 comments
37 forecasters
Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?
64%chance
6% this week