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0
comments
32
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
29%
Google Cloud
12%
Amazon Web Services
11%
1 other
2
comments
40
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH
25%
Amazon Web Services
5%
Microsoft Azure
5%
1 other
Oct 29 Update of Activities for Foresight Grant
0
comments
566
comments
1.7k
forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
18 Nov 2027
Key Factors
China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings
3
comments
61
forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet
34.6%
OpenAI
21.2%
Anthropic
18.2%
3 others
26%
8
comments
35
forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
7
comments
34
forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
0 or 1
42.6%
2 or 3
41.8%
4 or 5
10.6%
3 others
5%
60
comments
236
forecasters
Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?
64%
chance
Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence
10
0
comments
AI Progress Essay Contest
3
comments
19
forecasters
When will the first company with a market cap above the given figures be openly run by an AI CEO?
00
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