0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud20%
Microsoft Azure14%
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
3 comments
61 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet34.6%
OpenAI21.2%
Anthropic18.2%
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
8 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
7 comments
34 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
0 or 142.6%
2 or 341.8%
4 or 510.6%
6 comments
54 forecasters
Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?
19%chance
Key Factors
72 comments
321 forecasters
Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?
17%chance