14 comments
84 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind25%
Microsoft5%
Amazon5%
26 comments
42 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
22% this week
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
12 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
25%chance
25% this week
61 comments
100 forecasters
When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?
Current estimate
27 Apr 2027
622 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Oct 2033
169 comments
243 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama29.5%
AI-Dystopia25.6%
Singularia19.2%
38 comments
103 forecasters
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?
Current estimate
Jul 2031