14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
0 comments
29 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH16%
Microsoft Azure14%
Google Cloud12%
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
12 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
30%chance
20% this week
1 comment
24 forecasters
Before January 1, 2031, will a unified digital identity protocol enable interaction with at least three different governance frameworks (financial, legal, and civic)?
20%chance
10% this week
2 comments
38 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH27%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
2 comments
33 forecasters
Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?
5%chance
4% this week
2 comments
30 forecasters
Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?
12%chance