0 comments
105 forecasters
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?
15%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
3 comments
1 forecaster
Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?
70%chance
97 comments
184 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
2 comments
22 forecasters
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?
Inflectionresult: No
Metaresult: No
OpenAIresult: No
14 comments
63 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind20%
Amazon5%
Microsoft4%