0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
2 comments
22 forecasters
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?
Inflectionresult: No
Metaresult: No
OpenAIresult: No
2 comments
56 forecasters
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?
85%chance
21 comments
303 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
14 comments
99 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind20%
Microsoft4%
Meta3%
2 comments
53 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
78%chance
11 comments
43 forecasters
When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?
Latest estimate
05 May 2024
This question is closed for forecasting.