• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Discover
  • Services
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Discover
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
๐Ÿ’ฌ
Top Comments
๐Ÿ’ก
Comments Feed
๐Ÿ“ˆ
Indexes
๐Ÿ†
Leaderboards
โš™๏ธ
Labor Hub
๐Ÿฆพ
FutureEval
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
US Midterms
โš”๏ธ
Metaculus Cup
๐Ÿ’ฅ
Iran War
โ“
Top Questions
๐Ÿ—ž๏ธ
Current Events
๐Ÿ’ผ
Economy & Business
๐Ÿ›๏ธ
Politics
๐ŸŒ
Geopolitics
๐Ÿค–
Artificial Intelligence
โš™๏ธ
Technology
๐Ÿฆ 
Health & Pandemics
๐Ÿ’ป
Computing and Math
๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ
Elections
๐ŸŒฑ
Environment & Climate
๐Ÿ”ฌ
Natural Sciences
๐Ÿ€
Sports & Entertainment
โš–๏ธ
Law
๐Ÿš€
Space
๐Ÿง‘โ€๐Ÿคโ€๐Ÿง‘
Social Sciences
๐Ÿ”ฎ
Metaculus
โ˜ข๏ธ
Nuclear Technology & Risks
๐Ÿ’ฐ
Cryptoยญcurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestionsTournamentsTournaments for AI botsFutureEval
ServicesLaunch a TournamentPrivate InstancesPro Forecasters
CompanyAboutCareersFAQ
ResourcesForecasting ResourcesFor JournalistsAPI
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use

Announcing the Winners of Forecasting the Upstart Macro Index

3
55 comments

Economist 2021 Series Announcement

8
1313 comments

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

14
1919 comments
103
103 forecasters

How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years?

8
1313 comments
37
37 forecasters

Announcing: Forecasting the Upstart Macro Index - $10,000 Prize Pool

9
1919 comments

What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020?

6
1717 comments
32
32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6
22 comments
63
63 forecasters

What will be the Trade Openness Index for the United States in the following years?

33 comments
5
5 forecasters

What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years?

4
55 comments
45
45 forecasters

What percent of US GDP will come from manufacturing in the first half of 2028?

9.45% (8.97 - 10)

11 comment
138
138 forecasters
9.45%
(8.97 - 10)

Will the USD fraction of allocated global foreign exchange currencies be below 50% before the following years?

8
77 comments
44
44 forecasters

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

14% chance

2
77 comments
39
39 forecasters
14%chance

What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years?

6
1717 comments
29
29 forecasters

What will the United States' federal debt-to-GDP ratio be in the following years?

3
44 comments
6
6 forecasters

Will the U.S. presidential administration alter or delay the public release of a major federal economic indicator in the following years?

33 comments
122
122 forecasters

What will be the annual revenue for the average 20kWh home battery trading on the Dutch frequency imbalance market in 2028?

1124 โ‚ฌ (954 - 1302)

1
22 comments
4
4 forecasters
1124 โ‚ฌ
(954 - 1302)

What will net outlays by the US government be in 2028 as a percentage of GDP?

24.1% (22.3 - 25.7)

1
0 comments
8
8 forecasters
24.1%
(22.3 - 25.7)

Will the US dollar continuously remain >50% of global foreign currency exchange reserves through Q3 2028?

77% chance

8
77 comments
402
402 forecasters
77%chance

What will be the global Trade Openness Index in the following years?

3
11 comment
3
3 forecasters

What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023?

8
2323 comments
29
29 forecasters

Chinese volume production using EUV by 2033? โ†’ Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

1
22 comments
8
8 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

7
11 comment
25
25 forecasters