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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

28%chance

11% this week

Key Factors

0 comments

33 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH30%

Google Cloud16%

Microsoft Azure13%

3 comments

47 forecasters

What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025?

condition

9 forecasters

11 comments

117 forecasters

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

95%chance

2 comments

32 forecasters

What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?

community

3.29

result

3.13

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

Nata30%

1 comment

11 forecasters

Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?

15%chance

4 comments

29 forecasters

How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years?

Market Pulse 25Q4 Opens

5 5 comments

Market Pulse Challenge 25Q4

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025?

Chinese volume production using EUV by 2033?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?

How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years?

Market Pulse 25Q4 Opens

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025?

Chinese volume production using EUV by 2033?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?

How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years?

Market Pulse 25Q4 Opens