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US Democracy Index

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What will the Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot (for the 2026 midterms) on December 2, 2025?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 5 hours

0 comments

7 forecasters

Will the Democratic candidate win the 2026 US Senate election in the following states?

Georgia70%

Iowa45%

Maine60%

418 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Nikki Haleyresult: No

Ron DeSantisresult: No

3.9k comments

3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

condition

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

20 forecasters

if yes

if no

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

-3.09

What will be the Republican advantage (or disadvantage) vs Democrats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?

-7.74

0 comments

20 forecasters

POTUS Predictions

238 comments

223 forecasters

Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day?

J.D. Vanceresult: Yes

Vivek Ramaswamyresult: No

Donald Trump Jr.result: No

82 comments

235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes

Kamala Harris (D)result: No

Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

1 comment

36 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?

81%chance

Key Factors

15 comments

35 forecasters

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

10%chance

1 comment

20 forecasters

Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democratic Party51.9%

Republican Party48%

Other0.1%