Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Nikki Haleyresult: No

Ron DeSantisresult: No

3.9k comments

3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

82 comments

235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes

Kamala Harris (D)result: No

Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

19 comments

80 forecasters

Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?

Both elections81.7%

Only Virginia13.3%

Only New Jersey3%

1 comment

29 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

75%chance

5% this week

584 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Kamala Harrisresult: Yes

Joe Bidenresult: No

Gavin Newsomresult: No

238 comments

223 forecasters

Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day?

J.D. Vanceresult: Yes

Vivek Ramaswamyresult: No

Donald Trump Jr.result: No

14 comments

16 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024?

Alaskaresult: 13.1

Iowaresult: 13.2

Ohioresult: 11.1

0 comments

44 forecasters

How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years?

202549

202646

202745.3

5 comments

69 forecasters

Which party will win the Virginia gubernatorial election of 2025?

Democrats (Spanberger)97.9%

Republicans (Earl-Sears)2%

Other0.1%