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US Democracy Index

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What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

Current estimate

0.856 °C

Key Factors

1 comment

35 forecasters

Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?

96%chance

8 comments

144 forecasters

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

22%chance

condition

4 forecasters

52 comments

283 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10%chance

7 comments

194 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

1%chance

3 comments

17 forecasters

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

32.4%chance

condition

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?

1 forecaster

if yes

if no

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Oct 2060

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Feb 2053

4 4 comments

1 forecaster

condition

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Jul 2051

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Apr 2034

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

13 comments

45 forecasters

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%chance

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?