Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?22% chance2088 comments148148 forecasters22%chance
Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?31% chance433 comments1919 forecasters31%chance
EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?211 comment44 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?1% chance777 comments199199 forecasters1%chance
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?0.1% chance22 comments6868 forecasters0.1%chance
Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?96% chance311 comment3939 forecasters96%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments296296 forecasters10%chance
Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?344 comments11 forecaster
Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?211 comment55 forecasters
Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?31% chance1066 comments5454 forecasters31%chance
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?25% chance41313 comments4747 forecasters25%chance