Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?40% chance1166 comments5454 forecasters40%chance
Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?344 comments11 forecaster
Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?211 comment55 forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?0.1% chance22 comments6666 forecasters0.1%chance
Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?30% chance433 comments1818 forecasters30%chance
How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?5.48 Tg (<0 - 32.6)41010 comments2222 forecasters5.48 Tg (<0 - 32.6)
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?1% chance777 comments197197 forecasters1%chance
Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?20% chance2088 comments146146 forecasters20%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments294294 forecasters10%chance
From Reduction to Elimination: Replicating the Successes of Historical Tuberculosis Control50 comments