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US Democracy Index

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Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

72%chance

5.3% this week

378 comments

886 forecasters

33 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

40%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

3 comments

25 forecasters

Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?

15%chance

Key Factors

9 comments

1.1k forecasters

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

1%chance

1% this week

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Poland1%

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

19 19 comments

Metaculus Cup Summer 2025

0 comments

2 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

17.1%chance

5 comments

89 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

4%chance

Key Factors

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?