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condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

4 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

34%
34%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%
28%
11 comment
4
4 forecasters
3 comments
25 forecasters

Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?

20%chance
0 comments
12 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

50%chance
5 comments
68 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

7%chance
4% this week
0 comments

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

0 comments
3 forecasters

By Dec 31, 2030, will China impose new export controls (licenses/quotas/bans) on ≥1 additional semiconductor mineral (excluding gallium/germanium)?

80%chance
32 comments
95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled
LebanonAnnulled
Saudi ArabiaAnnulled
10 comments
34 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

30%chance
10% this week
2 comments
38 forecasters

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

25%chance
5% this week
28 comments
171 forecasters

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

11%chance