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US Democracy Index

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By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

17.1%chance

17% this week

0 comments

16 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

66.7%chance

6.7% this week

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

38%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

5 forecasters

33 forecasters

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Poland1%

9 comments

1.1k forecasters

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

2%chance

3 comments

25 forecasters

Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?

15%chance

Key Factors

1 comment

26 forecasters

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

203530%

203010%

10 comments

14 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?