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Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

10 10 comments

Metaculus Cup Summer 2025

32 comments

95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled

LebanonAnnulled

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

condition

31 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Contributed by the Sudan Community community.

0 comments

3 forecasters

Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?

22%chance

375 comments

859 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

7 comments

33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States32%

Estonia30%

Poland30%

52 comments

29 forecasters

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

resultNo

18 comments

53 forecasters

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

resultNo

27 comments

168 forecasters

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

10%chance

7 comments

28 forecasters

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

33%chance

8% this week

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?