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condition
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
4
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
34%
34%
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
28%
28%
1
1
comment
4
4
forecasters
3
comments
25
forecasters
Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?
20%
chance
0
comments
12
forecasters
Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?
50%
chance
5
comments
68
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
7%
chance
4%
this week
0
comments
By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?
0
comments
3
forecasters
By Dec 31, 2030, will China impose new export controls (licenses/quotas/bans) on ≥1 additional semiconductor mineral (excluding gallium/germanium)?
80%
chance
32
comments
95
forecasters
Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?
Iran
Annulled
Lebanon
Annulled
Saudi Arabia
Annulled
9 others
10
comments
34
forecasters
Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?
30%
chance
10%
this week
2
comments
38
forecasters
Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?
25%
chance
5%
this week
28
comments
171
forecasters
Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?
11%
chance
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