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condition
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
5
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
40%
40%
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
28%
28%
1
1
comment
5
5
forecasters
12
comments
32
forecasters
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Vietnam
87%
Singapore
result:
Yes
Taiwan
68%
9 others
62
comments
387
forecasters
Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
0.7%
chance
21
comments
74
forecasters
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Poland
1%
6 others
5
comments
89
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
4%
chance
Key Factors
German stance
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
10
comments
14
forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?
00
9
comments
112
forecasters
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
50%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
10%
7 others
3
comments
25
forecasters
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
Current estimate
5.6×10²⁵ FLOP
32
comments
95
forecasters
Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?
Iran
Annulled
Lebanon
Annulled
Saudi Arabia
Annulled
9 others
6
comments
37
forecasters
Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?
1%
chance
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