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Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

15% this week

13 comments

46 forecasters

Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?

3%chance

32 comments

95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled

LebanonAnnulled

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

condition

31 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

40 comments

26 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous

LatviaAmbiguous

LithuaniaAmbiguous

12 comments

31 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%

Singaporeresult: Yes

Taiwan70%

18 comments

53 forecasters

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

resultNo

52 comments

29 forecasters

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

resultNo

7 comments

33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States32%

Estonia30%

Poland30%

27 comments

168 forecasters

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

10%chance

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?