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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

4 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

33%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

27%

1 1 comment

4 forecasters

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran57%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Ukraine1%

32 comments

95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled

LebanonAnnulled

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

5 comments

67 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

5.2%chance

21 comments

63 forecasters

Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?

5%chance

12 comments

31 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%

Singaporeresult: Yes

Taiwan70%

28 comments

171 forecasters

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

11%chance

15 comments

282 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29%chance

52 comments

29 forecasters

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

resultNo