• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

40%
40%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%
28%
11 comment
5
5 forecasters
12 comments
32 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam87%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan68%
62 comments
387 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

0.7%chance
21 comments
74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%
Saudi Arabia2%
Poland1%
5 comments
89 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

4%chance

Key Factors

10 comments
14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

00
9 comments
112 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
3 comments
25 forecasters

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

Current estimate
5.6×10²⁵ FLOP
32 comments
95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled
LebanonAnnulled
Saudi ArabiaAnnulled
6 comments
37 forecasters

Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?

1%chance