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condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

38%
38%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%
28%
11 comment
5
5 forecasters
3 comments
12 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

43%chance
14% this week

Key Factors

0 comments
98 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

9 comments
111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
5 comments
77 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

3%chance
4% this week

Key Factors

21 comments
74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%
Saudi Arabia2%
Japan1%
10 comments
14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

00

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

8
1919 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
32 comments
95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled
LebanonAnnulled
Saudi ArabiaAnnulled
15 comments
282 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29%chance