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32
comments
95
forecasters
Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?
Iran
Annulled
Lebanon
Annulled
Saudi Arabia
Annulled
9 others
21
comments
48
forecasters
Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?
result
Yes
7
comments
33
forecasters
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
United States
32%
Estonia
30%
Poland
30%
9 others
20
comments
76
forecasters
Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?
12%
chance
7
comments
28
forecasters
Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?
33%
chance
8%
this week
0
comments
53
forecasters
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?
22%
chance
5
comments
86
forecasters
Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?
9
comments
109
forecasters
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
64%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
7%
7 others
21
comments
73
forecasters
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Saudi Arabia
2.5%
Japan
1%
6 others
5
comments
38
forecasters
Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?
45%
chance
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