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condition
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
5
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
38%
38%
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
28%
28%
1
1
comment
5
5
forecasters
3
comments
12
forecasters
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
43%
chance
14%
this week
Key Factors
Sub-Saharan Africa leads globally in coup frequency
0
comments
98
forecasters
Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?
15%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
9
comments
111
forecasters
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
50%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
10%
7 others
5
comments
77
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
3%
chance
4%
this week
Key Factors
German stance
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
21
comments
74
forecasters
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Japan
1%
6 others
10
comments
14
forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?
00
Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup
8
19
19
comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
32
comments
95
forecasters
Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?
Iran
Annulled
Lebanon
Annulled
Saudi Arabia
Annulled
9 others
15
comments
282
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
29%
chance
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