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0
comments
98
forecasters
Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?
15%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
condition
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
5
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
31%
31%
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
26%
26%
1
1
comment
5
5
forecasters
3
comments
13
forecasters
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
51%
chance
8%
this week
Key Factors
Sub-Saharan Africa leads globally in coup frequency
21
comments
74
forecasters
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Poland
1%
6 others
5
comments
84
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
4%
chance
Key Factors
German stance
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup
8
19
19
comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
9
comments
112
forecasters
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
50%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
10%
7 others
62
comments
387
forecasters
Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
0.5%
chance
10
comments
14
forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?
00
78
comments
2.1k
forecasters
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
7%
chance
3%
this week
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