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condition
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
5
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
38%
38%
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
28%
28%
1
1
comment
5
5
forecasters
5
comments
80
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
4%
chance
3%
this week
Key Factors
German stance
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
10
comments
14
forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?
00
11
comments
15
forecasters
Will Syria be partitioned into new, internationally recognized sovereign states before 2040?
10%
chance
23
comments
169
forecasters
Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?
1%
chance
29
comments
32
forecasters
What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?
community
120
result
118.88
Forecast International Elections With Data Journalist Kiko Llaneras
11
3
3
comments
Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World
10
10
10
comments
Metaculus Journal Archives
Mapping the Israel-Hamas Conflict
10
8
8
comments
Israel-Gaza Conflict
The Israel-Hamas War: Forecasting in Unprecedented Times
13
1
1
comment
Israel-Gaza Conflict
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