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condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

2 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%
19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%
28%
11 comment
2
2 forecasters
5 comments
63 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

8%chance
6% this week
10 comments
14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

00
23 comments
170 forecasters

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

1%chance
11 comments
15 forecasters

Will Syria be partitioned into new, internationally recognized sovereign states before 2040?

12%chance
43 comments
65 forecasters

Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?

United States51%
China35%
Israel10%
29 comments
32 forecasters

What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?

community
120
result
118.88

Forecast International Elections With Data Journalist Kiko Llaneras

11
33 comments

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World

10
1010 comments
Metaculus Journal Archives

Mapping the Israel-Hamas Conflict

10
88 comments
Israel-Gaza Conflict