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Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

4 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

4 forecasters

5 comments

37 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

21 comments

73 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran57%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

82 comments

161 forecasters

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Syria80%

Haiti74%

Mali62.5%

7 comments

33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States30%

Poland30%

Lithuania29%

210 comments

230 forecasters

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

Sudanresult: Yes

Niger67%

Democratic Republic of Congo60%

23 comments

170 forecasters

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

1%chance

1 comment

50 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

75%chance

condition

46 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?