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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

40%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Japan1%

9 comments

112 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

10 comments

14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

5 comments

38 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

Key Factors

11 comments

55 forecasters

Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?

3%chance

210 comments

230 forecasters

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

Sudanresult: Yes

Niger67%

Haiti60%

82 comments

163 forecasters

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Syria81%

Haiti74%

Mali62.5%

7 comments

28 forecasters

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

33%chance

condition

45 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?