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condition
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
5
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
38%
38%
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
28%
28%
1
1
comment
5
5
forecasters
9
comments
111
forecasters
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
50%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
10%
7 others
21
comments
74
forecasters
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Poland
1%
6 others
12
comments
31
forecasters
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Vietnam
85%
Singapore
result:
Yes
Taiwan
70%
9 others
1
comment
26
forecasters
Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?
2035
30%
2030
10%
10
comments
14
forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?
00
5
comments
81
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
4%
chance
Key Factors
German stance
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup
8
19
19
comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
5
comments
37
forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
30%
chance
Key Factors
Russian drones violated Polish airspace
9
comments
17
forecasters
Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?
23%
chance
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