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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

14%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

82 comments

2.1k forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

6%chance

6 comments

38 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

Key Factors

12 comments

32 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam87%

Singaporeresult: Yes

Taiwan68%

379 comments

886 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

28 comments

171 forecasters

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

10%chance

18 comments

53 forecasters

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

resultNo

52 comments

29 forecasters

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

resultNo

9 comments

112 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea2.5%

Saudi Arabia1.5%

Poland1%