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Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

5
1717 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
4 comments
33 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance
10% this week
32 comments
95 forecasters

Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?

IranAnnulled
LebanonAnnulled
Saudi ArabiaAnnulled
1 comment
47 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 66.00% on 2025-08-30 for the Metaculus question 'Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?'?

resultYes
375 comments
861 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Contributed by the Sudan Community community.

0 comments
3 forecasters

Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?

22%chance
40 comments
26 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous
LatviaAmbiguous
LithuaniaAmbiguous
5 comments
38 forecasters

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

45%chance
10% this week
18 comments
53 forecasters

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

resultNo
52 comments
29 forecasters

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

resultNo