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condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

38%
38%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%
28%
11 comment
5
5 forecasters
9 comments
111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
21 comments
74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%
Saudi Arabia2%
Poland1%
12 comments
31 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan70%
1 comment
26 forecasters

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

203530%
203010%
10 comments
14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

00
5 comments
81 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

4%chance

Key Factors

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

8
1919 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
5 comments
37 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

Key Factors

9 comments
17 forecasters

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

23%chance