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What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?

4

193

193 forecasters

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

33

210 210 comments

231

231 forecasters

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

31

167

167 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

9

126

126 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

8

15

15 forecasters

When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?

15 May 2031 (27 Aug 2028 - Aug 2037)

4

19

19 forecasters

15 May 2031

(27 Aug 2028 - Aug 2037)

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027? → Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

4

48

48 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035) → Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1

10

10 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

9

26

26 forecasters

If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?

83.5 ° (39.7 - 117)

13

49

49 forecasters

83.5 °

(39.7 - 117)

What's the Endgame of the War in Ukraine?

21

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

11

76

76 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

11

38

38 forecasters

Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?

3% chance

43

290

290 forecasters

3%chance

Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Romania?

3

16

16 forecasters

What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?

120 (108 - 128)

6

32

32 forecasters

Resolved118.88

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

75% chance

3

52

52 forecasters

75%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

88% chance

5

58

58 forecasters

88%chance

Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?

result: no

17

84

84 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the following countries intervene military if there is a Second Korean War by 2050?

4

23

23 forecasters

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

11% chance

5

79

79 forecasters

11%chance

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

23

189

189 forecasters