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Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

9

126

126 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

8

15

15 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

11

76

76 forecasters

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

23

189

189 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

9

26

26 forecasters

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

31

166

166 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

11

38

38 forecasters

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

33

210 210 comments

231

231 forecasters

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

1% chance

9

174

174 forecasters

1%chance

Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Romania?

3

16

16 forecasters

When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?

26 Aug 2030 (15 Jul 2028 - Aug 2035)

4

16

16 forecasters

26 Aug 2030

(15 Jul 2028 - Aug 2035)

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035) → Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

9

9 forecasters

Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?

4% chance

43

291

291 forecasters

4%chance

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

13% chance

5

80

80 forecasters

13%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

66.7% chance

3

54

54 forecasters

66.7%chance

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027? → Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

4

48

48 forecasters

Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?

result: no

17

84

84 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

87% chance

5

59

59 forecasters

87%chance

What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?

120 (108 - 128)

6

32

32 forecasters

120

(108 - 128)

Will the following countries intervene military if there is a Second Korean War by 2050?

4

22

22 forecasters

Will Moldova control Transnistria before 2028?

20% chance

12

82

82 forecasters

20%chance

If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?

94.8 ° (45.2 - 126)

13

49

49 forecasters

94.8 °

(45.2 - 126)

If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?

39.4 ° (25.7 - 54.2)

18

63

63 forecasters

39.4 °

(25.7 - 54.2)

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

1