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US Democracy Index

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Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Poland1%

90 comments

187 forecasters

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Ivanivske99%

Velyka Novosilka99%

Kostyantynivka85%

9 comments

112 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

62 comments

387 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

0.7%chance

10 comments

14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

8 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1 1 comment

8 forecasters

40 comments

26 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous

LatviaAmbiguous

LithuaniaAmbiguous

7 comments

28 forecasters

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

33%chance

57 comments

277 forecasters

Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?

5%chance

condition

45 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?

Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?