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US Democracy Index

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Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Saudi ArabiaAnnulled

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran57%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

40 comments

26 forecasters

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous

LatviaAmbiguous

LithuaniaAmbiguous

90 comments

187 forecasters

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Ivanivske99%

Velyka Novosilka99%

Kostyantynivka85%

condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

8 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1 1 comment

8 forecasters

62 comments

425 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

1%chance

7 comments

33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States30%

Poland30%

Lithuania29%

82 comments

161 forecasters

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Syria80%

Haiti74%

Mali62.5%

57 comments

277 forecasters

Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?

5%chance

10 comments

14 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?