Question Feed | Metaculus

Questions
Tournaments
Discover
Services

Questions
Tournaments
Discover

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Health & Pandemics

Computing and Math

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Sports & Entertainment

🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Social Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Cryptocurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before December 1, 2026?

2

2 forecasters

%chance

Will Moldova control Transnistria before 2028?

15% chance

12

81

81 forecasters

15%chance

What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?

5

133

133 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

9

128

128 forecasters

When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?

19 Jan 2031 (16 Feb 2028 - Dec 2035)

4

24

24 forecasters

19 Jan 2031

(16 Feb 2028 - Dec 2035)

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

11

40

40 forecasters

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World

10

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

23

189

189 forecasters

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

33

210 210 comments

232

232 forecasters

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

31

168

168 forecasters

Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?

2% chance

43

294

294 forecasters

2%chance

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

8

16

16 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035) → Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1

10

10 forecasters

Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Romania?

3

16

16 forecasters

What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?

120 (108 - 128)

6

32

32 forecasters

Resolved118.88

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027? → Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

4

49

49 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

76% chance

3

52

52 forecasters

76%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

88% chance

5

58

58 forecasters

88%chance

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

11

77

77 forecasters

Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?

result: no

17

84

84 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the following countries intervene military if there is a Second Korean War by 2050?

4

23

23 forecasters

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

11% chance

5

79

79 forecasters

11%chance