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What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?

4

188

188 forecasters

If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

37% chance

10

140

140 forecasters

37%chance

What will be the highest-level status of Russia–Ukraine hostilities and diplomacy on August 8, 2026?

136

136 forecasters

When will an autonomous machine governor for Force generation be fielded by a G-20 state?

>Jan 2050 (>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

10

10 forecasters

>Jan 2050

(>Jan 2050 - >Jan 2050)

Will official Russian and Ukrainian delegations hold an in-person direct meeting between June 27 and July 9, 2026?

result: no

98

98 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will Vladimir Putin visit Iran before September 1, 2026?

3% chance

30

30 forecasters

3%chance

Will the PRC find itself in a high-intensity conflict with any of the following countries by the end of 2030?

20

20 forecasters

Will a Ukranian attack cause a 30-day shutdown of a Russian oil refinery before 2027?

88% chance

2

20

20 forecasters

88%chance

Will a Ukrainian drone strike on the Russian port of Primorsk be publicly reported to cause damage between June 1, 2026 and June 14, 2026?

result: no

104 104 comments

99

99 forecasters

ResolvedNo

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

2.8×10²⁵ FLOP (1.6×10²⁴ - 1.7×10²⁶)

28

28 forecasters

2.8×10²⁵ FLOP

(1.6×10²⁴ - 1.7×10²⁶)

Will a comprehensive Russia–Ukraine ceasefire be officially in effect on June 14, 2026?

result: no

93

93 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

31.6% chance

2

24

24 forecasters

31.6%chance

Will Georgia control South Ossetia and Abkhazia before 2028?

0.1% chance

7

58

58 forecasters

0.1%chance

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20% chance

4

35

35 forecasters

20%chance

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

31

167

167 forecasters

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

86% chance

1

52

52 forecasters

86%chance

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

33

210 210 comments

231

231 forecasters

Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024? → Ukrainian 2025 Exports above 2021?

6

25

25 forecasters

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

14% chance

15

962

962 forecasters

14%chance

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2% chance

16

229

229 forecasters

2%chance

Will the United States import any crude oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030?

71% chance

1

29

29 forecasters

71%chance