Will Russia and Ukraine both publicly confirm a mutual energy-infrastructure ceasefire agreement by October 3, 2026?result: no182182 comments182182 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Russia disable global technology infrastructure including AI before 2050?1% chance11 comment11 forecaster1%chance
Will a Cognitive-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance99 comments33 forecasters25%chance
Will a Space-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance1010 comments33 forecasters10%chance
Will a Space-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance1414 comments55 forecasters25%chance
Will a Land-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?28% chance55 comments44 forecasters28%chance
Will an Air-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?40% chance55 comments44 forecasters40%chance
Will a Cyber-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?70% chance55 comments33 forecasters70%chance
Will a Maritime-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance33 comments33 forecasters25%chance
Will a Land-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance22 comments22 forecasters20%chance
Will an Air-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?9.5% chance22 comments22 forecasters9.5%chance
Will a Maritime-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance11 comment11 forecaster10%chance
Will a Cognitive-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?50% chance11 comment11 forecaster50%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance11 comment11 forecaster20%chance
Will a Manoeuvre, fire, and effects-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance11 comment11 forecaster10%chance
Will an Information effects-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?30% chance11 comment11 forecaster30%chance
Will a Protection-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?40% chance44 comments11 forecaster40%chance
Will a Protection-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance33 comments11 forecaster25%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?5% chance11 comment11 forecaster5%chance
Will a Manoeuvre, fire, and effects domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?40% chance11 comment11 forecaster40%chance
Will an Information effects-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?10% chance11 comment11 forecaster10%chance
Will a Cyber-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?60% chance11 comment11 forecaster60%chance