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US Democracy Index

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Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

18%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

2 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%

1 1 comment

2 forecasters

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

2 comments

21 forecasters

Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?

20%chance

5% this week

32 comments

113 forecasters

If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

48%chance

0 comments

98 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

28 comments

407 forecasters

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%chance

0 comments

11 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

52%chance

10% this week

5 comments

64 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

7%chance

7% this week