Will Russia and Ukraine sign a formal written peace or ceasefire agreement before September 10, 2026?14% chance0 comments8989 forecasters14%chance
Will a Ukrainian drone strike on the Russian port of Primorsk be publicly reported to cause damage between June 1, 2026 and June 14, 2026?35% chance0 comments9999 forecasters35%chance
Will a comprehensive Russia–Ukraine ceasefire be officially in effect on June 14, 2026?5.5% chance0 comments9393 forecasters5.5%chance
Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?result: no27158158 comments903903 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?result: no19126126 comments224224 forecastersResolvedNo
How many distinct NATO member states will formally request Article 4 consultations citing the 2026 Iran conflict before May 1, 2026?0 member states (0 - 2)111111 comments112112 forecasters0 member states (0 - 2)
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?4% chance161717 comments224224 forecasters4%chance
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?16 Oct 2027 (08 Feb 2027 - 14 Nov 2028)47171171 comments391391 forecasters16 Oct 2027 (08 Feb 2027 - 14 Nov 2028)
Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?result: no152828 comments230230 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?25% chance277 comments9393 forecasters25%chance
Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?result: no33161161 comments455455 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?result: no0 comments1414 forecastersResolvedNo
If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?30% chance103232 comments143143 forecasters30%chance
Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 20th, 2023?22% chance82525 comments8787 forecastersAmbiguous
If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?152020 comments3333 forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?81616 comments1515 forecasters
Will third countries directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024?123232 comments9595 forecasters
Will Ukrainian military forces strike targets more than 10 kilometers inside Russian territory?08 Mar 2023 (16 Dec 2022 - 29 Oct 2023)41313 comments2121 forecasters08 Mar 2023 (16 Dec 2022 - 29 Oct 2023)
Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?result: no73030 comments129129 forecastersResolvedNo