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US Democracy Index

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When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 202683.4%

1 October 2025 - 31 December 202513.6%

1 April 2025 - 30 June 20251%

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 days

3 comments

1 forecaster

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

18%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

14 comments

31 forecasters

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

0 comments

16 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

71%chance

11% this week

4 comments

83 forecasters

Will Russia’s annual GDP growth rate exceed 1.5% in Q3 2025?

3%chance

4% this week

Key Factors

0 comments

28 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

3%chance

2% this week