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9 comments
42 forecasters

Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?

75 comments
74 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?"?

resultNo
75 comments
74 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 12.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?"?

resultYes
4 comments
32 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance
15% this week
8 comments

Will Poland and Ukraine settle the Przewodów incident before 2024?

Annulled
24 comments
93 forecasters

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

10%chance
5% this week
8 comments
74 forecasters

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 202697.2%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 20252.5%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 20250.1%
1 comment
49 forecasters

Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria?

resultNo
155 comments
341 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate
01 Nov 2026
0 comments
49 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

5%chance
7% this week