What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?101313 comments7171 forecasters
What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?899 comments8080 forecasters
Will GiveWell fund or recommend grants for the following interventions before January 1, 2027?555 comments1010 forecasters
What will be the maximum weekly new hospital admissions per 100,000 for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2026/27 season?133 comments77 forecasters
What will be the total number of US cyclosporiasis hospitalizations before September 2026?1057 Hospitalizations (989 - 1150)199 comments7878 forecasters1057 Hospitalizations (989 - 1150)
What proportion of influenza A will be H1N1 during the 2026/27 influenza season?31.5% (13.5 - 59)133 comments77 forecasters31.5% (13.5 - 59)
How many measles cases will be reported in the United States and in the European Economic Area in 2027?122 comments99 forecasters
What will be the reported trust in government averaged across OECD countries in the following years?344 comments5858 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC40 comments
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?6% chance51010 comments5656 forecasters6%chance
How many Clade I Mpox cases will have been reported in the US before 2027?48 cases (40 - 58)1515 comments1616 forecasters48 cases (40 - 58)
Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
How many deaths from Tuberculosis will occur globally in the following years?744 comments1515 forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2030?20% chance122 comments1919 forecasters20%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?28% chance374444 comments471471 forecasters28%chance