Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance374545 comments468468 forecasters25%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
How many Clade I Mpox cases will have been reported in the US before 2027?38 cases (31 - 50)1111 comments1414 forecasters38 cases (31 - 50)
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?18.9% chance51010 comments5858 forecasters18.9%chance
Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity50 comments
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?36% chance602323 comments425425 forecasters36%chance
What vaccine efficacy will the M72 tuberculosis vaccine show in the Phase 3 Gates MRI trial?45.8% (35 - 55.5)11818 comments2020 forecasters45.8% (35 - 55.5)
What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years?344 comments6868 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?1% chance777 comments199199 forecasters1%chance
How many people worldwide will have completed vaccination with the MTBVAC tuberculosis vaccine before 2040?245M People (<100k - 515M)12828 comments2020 forecasters245M People (<100k - 515M)
What will be the lower 95% confidence bound for the vaccine efficacy of the M72 tuberculosis vaccine in the Phase 3 Gates MRI trial?18.6% (7 - 30.4)12424 comments2020 forecasters18.6% (7 - 30.4)
Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?20% chance20 comments2929 forecasters20%chance
Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?2121 comments1919 forecasters
What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?888 comments8080 forecasters
How many people worldwide will have completed vaccination with the M72 tuberculosis vaccine before 2040?156M People (<200k - 382M)12626 comments1919 forecasters156M People (<200k - 382M)
What vaccine efficacy will the MTBVAC tuberculosis vaccine show in the IMAGINE phase 2 clinical trial?34.9% (21.1 - 50.1)22121 comments2020 forecasters34.9% (21.1 - 50.1)
What will be the lower confidence bound for the vaccine efficacy of the MTBVAC tuberculosis vaccine in the IMAGINE Phase 2 clinical trial?0.266% (<0 - 12.7)2020 comments1919 forecasters0.266% (<0 - 12.7)
How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?Ambiguous377979 comments218218 forecastersAmbiguous
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?Ambiguous744 comments4242 forecastersAmbiguous