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US Democracy Index

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How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?

Current estimate

50.2 Deaths

8 comments

15 forecasters

What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?

H1N151.9

H3N242.1

H5<0.1

2 comments

60 forecasters

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

45%chance

14% this week

9 comments

215 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Current estimate

53.3M birds

20 comments

185 forecasters

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

44 comments

432 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

21 comments

19 forecasters

Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?

United Kingdomresult: Yes

United Statesresult: Yes

Zambiaresult: Yes

79 comments

218 forecasters

How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?

community

104k

result

Ambiguous

8 comments

36 forecasters

What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?

community

8.15

result

condition

Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

124

Resolved:Annulled

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

144

13 13 comments

17 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25