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US Democracy Index

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Median prob. among Unjournal experts: “If the price of the... hamburger-imitating plant products fell by 10% ... how many more/fewer chickens consumed globally in 2030 (+/- percent)?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

0 comments

Respiratory Outlook 2025/26

12 comments

15 forecasters

What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?

H1N153.8

H3N243.6

H5<0.1

35 comments

108 forecasters

How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?

Current estimate

47.5 Deaths

Key Factors

3 comments

5 forecasters

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

Engineering10k

Physics548

Microbiology and immunology543

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7 7 comments

24 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

44 comments

434 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance

2 comments

66 forecasters

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

34%chance

6% this week

12 comments

176 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Current estimate

56.4M birds

condition

Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

124

Resolved:Annulled

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

144

13 13 comments

17 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25