Will the 2026 suspected pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia result in 10 fatalities before 2027?1% chance51010 comments3737 forecasters1%chance
What proportion of influenza A will be H1N1 during the 2026/27 influenza season?53.9% (35.5 - 77.1)11010 comments1111 forecasters53.9% (35.5 - 77.1)
What will be the maximum weekly new hospital admissions per 100,000 for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2026/27 season?11111 comments1313 forecasters
How many measles cases will be reported in the United States and in the European Economic Area in 2027?188 comments1414 forecasters
How many Clade I Mpox cases will have been reported in the US before 2027?>100 cases (90 - >100)1717 comments1717 forecasters>100 cases (90 - >100)
If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?84% chance133 comments2323 forecasters84%chance
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?6% chance51010 comments5959 forecasters6%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?23.9% chance633 comments3737 forecasters23.9%chance
What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?101313 comments7171 forecasters
What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?899 comments8181 forecasters
Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?40% chance612323 comments431431 forecasters40%chance