Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?5% chance1099 comments8585 forecasters5%chance
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?28% chance140270270 comments1.6k1.6k forecasters28%chance
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?40% chance858484 comments645645 forecasters40%chance
In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?result: no599 comments103103 forecastersResolvedNo
When will the first person reach 150 years of age?2141 (2096 - 2188)51010 comments2020 forecasters2141 (2096 - 2188)
Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?97% chance517474 comments448448 forecasters97%chance
When will the next person reach 120 years of age?Mar 2038 (May 2034 - Apr 2043)61111 comments1616 forecastersMar 2038 (May 2034 - Apr 2043)
How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?47.1 (30.9 - 68.7)311717 comments6565 forecasters47.1 (30.9 - 68.7)
When will any type of dog have a life expectancy at birth of 30 years or more?Nov 2073 (Dec 2053 - 2097)1222 comments3737 forecastersNov 2073 (Dec 2053 - 2097)
How many years after 2018 will the last human being be born?29.6k years (<500 - >1M)163434 comments128128 forecasters29.6k years (<500 - >1M)
When will Altos Labs first trial an anti-aging intervention in humans?20 Aug 2030 (14 Jul 2028 - Nov 2033)1233 comments2020 forecasters20 Aug 2030 (14 Jul 2028 - Nov 2033)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22% chance332727 comments229229 forecasters22%chance
Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?79% chance4244 comments8787 forecasters79%chance
Five years after AGI, will there be widely available radical life extension treatment?53% chance1244 comments9898 forecasters53%chance
When will the average five-year survival rate of all cancers exceed 95%?Aug 2056 (Jul 2045 - Dec 2066)777 comments2020 forecastersAug 2056 (Jul 2045 - Dec 2066)
Will age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000 people in the US go down 50% or more before 2051?47% chance822 comments2727 forecasters47%chance
What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?833 comments6161 forecasters
Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?97% chance298787 comments285285 forecasters97%chance
Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?15% chance366 comments3838 forecasters15%chance
Will a partial reprogramming-based therapy receive regulatory approval for treating Alzheimer’s disease before January 1, 2035?20% chance20 comments1919 forecasters20%chance
When will ex vivo human brain tissue be used in at least 10 peer-reviewed studies in one year for the first time?2030 Year (2028 - 2033)11 comment11 forecaster2030 Year (2028 - 2033)
Five years after AGI, what will be the biological human population?8.76B people (8.3B - 9.31B)511 comment4141 forecasters8.76B people (8.3B - 9.31B)