Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
257
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
25%
chance
Key Factors
Alzheimer's hampers developments in radical life extension
Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.
Genetics restricts lifespan for large population subset
condition
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
4
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
90%
90%
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
2%
2%
4
4
comments
4
4
forecasters
83
comments
626
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
40%
chance
2
comments
11
forecasters
Will the Humani Bedford Old Baobab die by 2027?
50%
chance
60
comments
65
forecasters
Will Jeff Bezos undertake a "seismic" development in longevity before September 1st 2021?
Ambiguous
4
comments
84
forecasters
Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?
75%
chance
3
comments
20
forecasters
When will Altos Labs first trial an anti-aging intervention in humans?
Current estimate
17 Jul 2030
9
comments
76
forecasters
Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?
1%
chance
27
comments
119
forecasters
How old will the oldest living person be in 2100?
Current estimate
131 years old
Contributed by the
Foresight Institute
community.
0
comments
10
forecasters
Will a partial reprogramming-based therapy receive regulatory approval for treating Alzheimer’s disease before January 1, 2035?
48%
chance
Load More