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82
comments
626
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
40%
chance
254
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
25%
chance
Key Factors
Alzheimer's hampers developments in radical life extension
Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.
Genetics restricts lifespan for large population subset
3
comments
5
forecasters
How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?
Engineering
4575
Physics
548
Microbiology and immunology
543
9 others
condition
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
4
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
90%
90%
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
8%
8%
4
4
comments
4
4
forecasters
6
comments
33
forecasters
What will be the world population in the following years?
6
comments
34
forecasters
Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?
15%
chance
17
comments
65
forecasters
How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?
community
47.1
result
21.4
9
comments
76
forecasters
Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?
1%
chance
7
comments
101
forecasters
What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years?
54
comments
284
forecasters
Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?
50%
chance
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