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257 comments
1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

25%chance

Key Factors

condition

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

4 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

90%
90%

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

2%
2%
44 comments
4
4 forecasters
83 comments
626 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance
2 comments
11 forecasters

Will the Humani Bedford Old Baobab die by 2027?

50%chance
60 comments
65 forecasters

Will Jeff Bezos undertake a "seismic" development in longevity before September 1st 2021?

Ambiguous
4 comments
84 forecasters

Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?

75%chance
3 comments
20 forecasters

When will Altos Labs first trial an anti-aging intervention in humans?

Current estimate
17 Jul 2030
9 comments
76 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?

1%chance
27 comments
119 forecasters

How old will the oldest living person be in 2100?

Current estimate
131 years old

Contributed by the Foresight Institute community.

0 comments
10 forecasters

Will a partial reprogramming-based therapy receive regulatory approval for treating Alzheimer’s disease before January 1, 2035?

48%chance