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What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1043 events (729 - 1814)

8

46

46 forecasters

1043 events

(729 - 1814)

Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?

11% chance

7

52

52 forecasters

11%chance

Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?

8% chance

13

69

69 forecasters

8%chance

Do we live in a false vacuum?

50% chance

11

31

31 forecasters

50%chance

PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics

32.7 (22.4 - 45.1)

4

57

57 forecasters

Resolved19.42

Will the existence and smoothness properties of the Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions turn out to depend on the compactness of the universe over which they are defined?

45% chance

2

10

10 forecasters

45%chance

Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?

5% chance

14

66

66 forecasters

5%chance

Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

53% chance

6

18

18 forecasters

53%chance

A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?

result: no

8

124

124 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?

1% chance

11

130

130 forecasters

1%chance

Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?

99% chance

11

94

94 forecasters

99%chance

Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?

38% chance

8

38

38 forecasters

38%chance

To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?

result: no

27

132

132 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Vacuum birefringence probably found near neutron stars: more research to come?

result: yes

8

31

31 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Can quantum gravity be interestingly constrained using tabletop experiments?

result: no

10

57

57 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Progress in why the universe is 3+1 dimensional?

result: no

4

90

90 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Resolution of the Density Conjecture for Newton's N-body problem

35% chance

15

88

88 forecasters

35%chance

New Solar Cycle 25 Question Series

4

Discussion page for the Fermi Paradox question series

13

Ultraviolet Catastrophes and Turbulence

14

Elliptic Curves, Diophantine Equations, and Cryptography

12

The ʻOumuamua Paradox and the Nature of Interstellar Objects

12