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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
6 comments
38 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

Key Factors

90 comments
188 forecasters

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Ivanivske99%
Velyka Novosilka99%
Kostyantynivka85%
2 comments
86 forecasters

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

4%chance

Key Factors

10 comments
66 forecasters

Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?

5 comments
93 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

3%chance

Key Factors

17 comments
143 forecasters

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

10%chance
78 comments
641 forecasters

Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?

resultYes
32 comments
49 forecasters

Who will be the first long-term President of Russia after Putin?

Mikhail Mishustin12%
Dmitry Medvedev5%
Nikolai Patrushev3%
7 comments
64 forecasters

Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

6%chance
67 comments
967 forecasters

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

0.3%chance