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[PRACTICE] Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

2% chance

288 288 comments

156

156 forecasters

2%chance

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

23

189

189 forecasters

Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?

28

97

97 forecasters

Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?

9

78

78 forecasters

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

2% chance

46

46 forecasters

2%chance

Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?

result: yes

25

641

641 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

51% chance

11

59

59 forecasters

51%chance

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

10% chance

19

154

154 forecasters

10%chance

Will Belarus become a EU candidate country before 2030?

0.1% chance

7

81

81 forecasters

0.1%chance

When will these countries adopt the Euro?

6

13

13 forecasters

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

40% chance

17

95

95 forecasters

40%chance

Will any part of Belarus be annexed or otherwise joined to the Russian Federation by the end of 2030?

20% chance

1

22

22 forecasters

20%chance

Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

3.9% chance

7

86

86 forecasters

3.9%chance

When will the first post-2022 direct flight between Russia and Europe (EU or UK ) take place?

09 Sep 2028 (18 Jun 2027 - 01 Dec 2030)

5

28

28 forecasters

09 Sep 2028

(18 Jun 2027 - 01 Dec 2030)

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

66.7% chance

3

54

54 forecasters

66.7%chance

[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?

result: yes

3

40

40 forecasters

ResolvedYes

[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?

result: yes

7

19

19 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Who will be the first long-term President of Russia after Putin?

9

53

53 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

87% chance

5

59

59 forecasters

87%chance

Which alliance will form the 2024 EU Commission?

6

26

26 forecasters

War in Europe by 2153? → Date EU Ceases to Exist?

3

5

5 forecasters

Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?

result: no

15

383

383 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

1% chance

9

174

174 forecasters

1%chance

Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by "the left" or by "the right"?

97.4 (78.6 - 99.3)

6

44

44 forecasters

97.4

(78.6 - 99.3)