Question Feed | Metaculus

Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Health & Pandemics

Computing and Math

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Sports & Entertainment

🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Social Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Cryptocurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

2% chance

137

137 forecasters

2%chance

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

23

189

189 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

40% chance

11

61

61 forecasters

40%chance

What's the Endgame of the War in Ukraine?

21

When will these countries adopt the Euro?

6

13

13 forecasters

Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?

9

83

83 forecasters

[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?

result: yes

3

40

40 forecasters

ResolvedYes

[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?

result: yes

7

19

19 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will any part of Belarus be annexed or otherwise joined to the Russian Federation by the end of 2030?

20% chance

1

22

22 forecasters

20%chance

Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

2% chance

7

85

85 forecasters

2%chance

Who will be the first long-term President of Russia after Putin?

9

53

53 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

75% chance

3

52

52 forecasters

75%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

88% chance

5

58

58 forecasters

88%chance

Which alliance will form the 2024 EU Commission?

6

26

26 forecasters

War in Europe by 2153? → Date EU Ceases to Exist?

3

5

5 forecasters

When will the first post-2022 direct flight between Russia and Europe (EU or UK ) take place?

24 Aug 2028 (08 Jul 2027 - 24 Sep 2030)

5

28

28 forecasters

24 Aug 2028

(08 Jul 2027 - 24 Sep 2030)

Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?

28

98

98 forecasters

Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?

result: no

15

383

383 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?

result: yes

25

641

641 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will Belarus become a EU candidate country before 2030?

0.1% chance

7

80

80 forecasters

0.1%chance

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

25% chance

17

94

94 forecasters

25%chance

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

10% chance

19

154

154 forecasters

10%chance