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Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?

2% chance

26

321

321 forecasters

2%chance

What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?

59

59 forecasters

What will the U.S. score on the Rule of Law Index in 2028, conditional on control of Congress?

29

29 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

19

235

235 forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

312

3.9k 3.9k comments

3.6k

3.6k forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

62

584 584 comments

1.2k

1.2k forecasters

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

5% chance

1

43

43 forecasters

5%chance

Announcing the US Midterms 2026 Tournament - $10,000 Prize Pool

10

Will the following people receive a presidential pardon or commutation before noon January 20, 2029?

3

12

12 forecasters

What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?

7.54 (7.31 - 7.72)

2

150

150 forecasters

7.54

(7.31 - 7.72)

What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?

78.9 points (66.9 - 90.2)

9

24

24 forecasters

78.9 points

(66.9 - 90.2)

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

1% chance

12

102

102 forecasters

1%chance

When will the first openly furry person be elected to a major US office?

Oct 2032 (30 Sep 2029 - Sep 2035)

2

36

36 forecasters

Oct 2032

(30 Sep 2029 - Sep 2035)

Which anonymous administration figure authored the NYT editorial?

8

Future Perfect 2020 Series

7

Future Perfect 2021 Series

7

Public Figures: New Figure Suggestions

34

183 183 comments

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6

Scott Alexander's 2022 Predictions

15

[New Questions] Autocrat Public Figure Series

12

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and (Sort Of) Love Nuclear Forecasting

21

2024 Election Hub Update

20