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The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is Live!

4

What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?

16

16 forecasters

Announcing the US Midterms 2026 Tournament - $10,000 Prize Pool

9

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

19

235

235 forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

312

3.9k 3.9k comments

3.6k

3.6k forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

61

584 584 comments

1.2k

1.2k forecasters

Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?

2% chance

25

321

321 forecasters

2%chance

Will the following people receive a presidential pardon or commutation before noon January 20, 2029?

3

12

12 forecasters

When will the first openly furry person be elected to a major US office?

Apr 2033 (03 Aug 2029 - Dec 2038)

2

36

36 forecasters

Apr 2033

(03 Aug 2029 - Dec 2038)

What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?

7.51 (7.25 - 7.69)

2

135

135 forecasters

7.51

(7.25 - 7.69)

$10,000 Prize Pool for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index

23

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

1% chance

12

103

103 forecasters

1%chance

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

7% chance

2

42

42 forecasters

7%chance

What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?

77.4 points (65.8 - 83.7)

9

23

23 forecasters

77.4 points

(65.8 - 83.7)

Which anonymous administration figure authored the NYT editorial?

8

Future Perfect 2020 Series

7

Future Perfect 2021 Series

7

Public Figures: New Figure Suggestions

34

183 183 comments

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6

Scott Alexander's 2022 Predictions

15

[New Questions] Autocrat Public Figure Series

12

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and (Sort Of) Love Nuclear Forecasting

21

2024 Election Hub Update

20

Results of 2020 U.S. Election Risks Survey