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0 comments
3 forecasters

Which of the following parties will be part of the next Israeli government formed following the next Knesset election?

Bennett 202669%
Yisrael Beiteinu65%
Yesh Atid63%

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

16
66 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
14 comments
36 forecasters

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

10%chance
8 comments
80 forecasters

Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?

resultNo

The Israel-Hamas War: Forecasting in Unprecedented Times

13
11 comment
Israel-Gaza Conflict

Competing Institutional Solutions to Housing Supply Restrictions

11
0 comments
Metaculus Journal Archives

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
33 comments
Metaculus Journal Archives

Matthew Yglesias Predicts 2021

21
1313 comments
Matthew Yglesias Predicts 2021

Which anonymous administration figure authored the NYT editorial?

8
2020 comments