12 comments
112 forecasters
Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?
Abu Dhabi73.3%
Qatar25.6%
Las Vegas1%
29 comments
164 forecasters
Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?
30%chance
12% this week
8 comments
19 forecasters
Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?
An uncrewed craft80%
At least one person40%
At least one person—and return them to Earth20%
18 comments
72 forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
45%chance
6 comments
12 forecasters
Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?
Germany75%
Italy33%
Australia60%
5 comments
26 forecasters
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
Current estimate
5.61 paths
8 comments
74 forecasters
What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?
19 comments
104 forecasters
How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
14 comments
78 forecasters
On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?
0.1%chance