Contributed by the Brown University Forecasting Team community.
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10 forecasters
Will the U.S. presidential administration alter or delay the public release of a major federal economic indicator in the following years?
14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
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6 forecasters
Will no debates be held between the actual or presumptive presidential nominees of the two major parties in the following US elections?
0 comments
5 forecasters
Will the U.S. House maps for the following years give any major party an efficiency-gap advantage of ≥20 seats nationwide?
6 comments
51 forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
48%chance
2 comments
30 forecasters
Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?
12%chance