14 comments
69 forecasters
Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?
Abu Dhabi65.5%
Qatar34.3%
São Paulo0.1%
Key Factors
97 comments
183 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Sep 2031
8 comments
22 forecasters
Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?
An uncrewed craft85%
At least one person40%
At least one person—and return them to Earth35%
24 comments
81 forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
50%chance
10% this week
Key Factors
11 comments
81 forecasters
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?
95%chance
4% this week
Key Factors
9 comments
19 forecasters
When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?
Current estimate
20 Jul 2026
Key Factors
14 comments
63 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind20%
Amazon5%
Microsoft4%
1 comment
18 forecasters