Question Feed | Metaculus

Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Health & Pandemics

Computing and Math

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Sports & Entertainment

🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Social Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Cryptocurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC

3

Will any of these AI companies (Lovable, DeepSeek, or Perplexity) have a funding round in July 2026?

31.1% chance

144

144 forecasters

31.1%chance

What will be the Gross World Product (in trillions of 2020 USD) in the following years?

5

15

15 forecasters

Winners of the Question Links contest for the Spring Cup

3

What will be the highest valuations of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic before 2041?

1

1 forecaster

Which lab will have the highest score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on August 31, 2026?

129

129 forecasters

How many award tranches will Elon Musk earn from Tesla’s 2025 CEO Performance Award by 2036?

10 Targets reached (2 - 11)

5

8

8 forecasters

10 Targets reached

(2 - 11)

Will a bot beat all humans in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

38% chance

132

132 forecasters

38%chance

Platform feature suggestions

113

3.4k 3.4k comments

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

57

57 forecasters

The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is Live!

8

Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?

10

40

40 forecasters

Will Metaculus announce a new public tournament or forecasting series with a displayed prize pool of at least $20,000 before September 1, 2026?

60% chance

105

105 forecasters

60%chance

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

60% chance

29

128

128 forecasters

60%chance

Will Argentina's economy grow at 3.5% or faster in 2026?

1

1 forecaster

%chance

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85% chance

17

149

149 forecasters

85%chance

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

9

The Next Spot Scoring Date for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index is July 15

6

Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?

99% chance

114

114 forecasters

99%chance

Will a bot beat all humans in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

16% chance

98

98 forecasters

16%chance

Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a higher valuation on January 1, 2027?

1

21

21 forecasters

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub Forum

3