88 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?"?
resultNo
89 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?"?
resultYes
0 comments
90 forecasters
How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)
Current estimate
Revealed in 9 minutes
Contributed by the JetBrains community.
0 comments
3 forecasters
For these benchmarks, what percentage of problems do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?
AI2 Reasoning Challenge97.9
Toloka's µ-MATH94.1
Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A90.8
0 comments
108 forecasters
[PRACTICE] What will be the community prediction of this question divided by 2?
Latest estimate
15.8 units
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
44 forecasters
Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?
Current estimate
9.71
14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%