Question Feed | Metaculus

Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Health & Pandemics

Computing and Math

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Sports & Entertainment

🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Social Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Cryptocurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Will a Chinese frontier model cross the U.S. AI frontier by at least 2 ECI points before 2029?

29% chance

4

4 forecasters

29%chance

Announcing the Winners of Forecasting the Upstart Macro Index

3

CTs Deep Learning Revenue → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

1

20

20 forecasters

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

9

9 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

41

184 184 comments

286

286 forecasters

Announcing: Forecasting the Upstart Macro Index - $10,000 Prize Pool

9

What will the average new forecasters per day be on this question before this question closes?

0.41 forecasters (0.23 - 0.66)

36

36 forecasters

0.41 forecasters

(0.23 - 0.66)

Will a bot beat all humans in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

result: yes

2

129

129 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will the 2026 World Cup deliver the predicted economic boost to US host cities?

39% chance

1

6

6 forecasters

39%chance

Platform feature suggestions

113

3.4k 3.4k comments

What will the top score on the ARC Prize 2026 – ARC-AGI-3 Kaggle public leaderboard be on September 17, 2026?

10.2% (8.17 - 13.8)

143

143 forecasters

10.2%

(8.17 - 13.8)

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

90% chance

39

250

250 forecasters

90%chance

Announcing the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026 with Kiko Llaneras!

6

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

25

336

336 forecasters

30%chance

What will be the highest scores in these ΑΙ benchmarks before September 2026?

4

143

143 forecasters

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub Forum

3

Last Call: Labor Automation Comment Prize Closes September 1

2

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30% chance

38

472

472 forecasters

30%chance

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

40% chance

13

45

45 forecasters

40%chance

Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

60% chance

2

70

70 forecasters

60%chance

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

78% chance

1

125

125 forecasters

78%chance

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7