0 comments
95 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
1 comment
12 forecasters
Will the US stock market crash by more than 10% in any 5-day trading period before January 1, 2027?
50%chance
2 comments
13 forecasters
Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?
45%chance
5% today
7 comments
129 forecasters
Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?
202634.8%
202730.6%
202814.1%
2 comments
39 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%