In 2029, will a single AI training run consume as much electricity in a month as a city of 100,000 people?33 comments1010 forecasters
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?111010 comments4949 forecasters
Will AIMO announce that its $5 million IMO-gold grand prize has been won before August 1, 2026?15% chance133 comments9494 forecasters15%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters
Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?55% chance51212 comments128128 forecasters55%chance
What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?292020 comments192192 forecasters
Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?111919 comments721721 forecasters
Will a UK public body use an AI-generated map to identify areas with sufficient ecological monitoring coverage for trend analysis before 2030?50% chance22 comments1111 forecasters50%chance
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?182424 comments9898 forecasters