In 2029, will a single AI training run consume as much electricity in a month as a city of 100,000 people?33 comments1111 forecasters
Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?62.5% chance11 comment22 forecasters62.5%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?888 comments8080 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?81717 comments6666 forecasters
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?98% chance31212 comments177177 forecasters98%chance
What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?1699 comments8181 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?27% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters27%chance
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?8% chance64242 comments7979 forecasters8%chance