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0 comments
12 forecasters

Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

Current estimate
Revealed tomorrow
69 comments
503 forecasters

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

25%chance
17 comments
152 forecasters

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

10%chance
4 comments
29 forecasters

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

22%chance
7 comments
526 forecasters

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

resultNo
0 comments
30 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

4.2%chance
20 comments
33 forecasters

If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?

SevastopolAnnulled
Luhansk cityAnnulled
DzhankoiAnnulled
26 comments
196 forecasters

Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?

resultNo
11 comments
97 forecasters

Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?

Annulled
21 comments
309 forecasters

RagnarΓΆk Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance