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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

25%chance

5% this week

0 comments

49 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

5%chance

5% this week

11 comments

97 forecasters

Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?

Annulled

20 comments

287 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

25%chance

9 comments

109 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran63%

Saudi Arabia14%

South Korea7%

20 comments

33 forecasters

If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?

SevastopolAnnulled

Luhansk cityAnnulled

DzhankoiAnnulled

21 comments

73 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2.5%

Japan1%

3 comments

26 forecasters

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

8.7%chance

46 comments

149 forecasters

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

Current estimate

1.1 weapons

17 comments

200 forecasters

Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?

resultNo