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0
comments
22
forecasters
Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?
1%
chance
5%
this week
26
comments
45
forecasters
Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?
5%
chance
5
comments
29
forecasters
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?
22%
chance
6
comments
46
forecasters
If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?
Europe
12.6
Russia
10.7
United States
9.88
5 others
44
comments
436
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
30%
chance
21
comments
310
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%
chance
9
comments
68
forecasters
Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?
ATACMS provided
result:
No
ATACMS not provided
Annulled
20
comments
33
forecasters
If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?
Sevastopol
Annulled
Luhansk city
Annulled
Dzhankoi
Annulled
8 others
69
comments
504
forecasters
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
25%
chance
7
comments
526
forecasters
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
result
No
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