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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
0 comments
22 forecasters

Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

1%chance
5% this week
26 comments
45 forecasters

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

5%chance
5 comments
29 forecasters

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

22%chance
6 comments
46 forecasters

If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?

Europe12.6
Russia10.7
United States9.88
44 comments
436 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance
21 comments
310 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance
9 comments
68 forecasters

Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

ATACMS providedresult: No
ATACMS not providedAnnulled
20 comments
33 forecasters

If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?

SevastopolAnnulled
Luhansk cityAnnulled
DzhankoiAnnulled
69 comments
504 forecasters

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

25%chance
7 comments
526 forecasters

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

resultNo