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17
comments
145
forecasters
Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?
8%
chance
0
comments
28
forecasters
Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?
5%
chance
17
comments
200
forecasters
Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?
result
No
26
comments
196
forecasters
Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?
result
No
2
comments
52
forecasters
Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?
result
No
11
comments
97
forecasters
Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?
Annulled
9
comments
111
forecasters
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
57%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
10%
7 others
21
comments
74
forecasters
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Ukraine
1%
6 others
20
comments
33
forecasters
If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?
Sevastopol
Annulled
Luhansk city
Annulled
Dzhankoi
Annulled
8 others
290
comments
735
forecasters
Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?
result
No
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