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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

4%chance
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

15%
15%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
7 comments7
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?

Annulled
condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters
if yes
if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.726

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.05
10 comments10
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?

resultNo

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?

resultNo

Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?

resultNo

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?

resultNo

Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?

resultNo