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Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

4%chance

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

15%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7 comments7

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?

Annulled

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.726

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.05

10 comments10

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?

resultNo

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?

Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?

Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?

Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?

Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?