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How many metric tons of ≥20% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050?

11

32

32 forecasters

How many metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050?

6

24

24 forecasters

What will be the total retail sales of plant-based meat and seafood in 2026?

6.89B $ (6.59B - 7.17B)

1

33

33 forecasters

6.89B $

(6.59B - 7.17B)

Five years after AGI, how many animals will be slaughtered in factory farms?

84.7B billion animals (55.5B - 110B)

4

22

22 forecasters

84.7B billion animals

(55.5B - 110B)

How many additional US states will enact bans on cultivated meat before July 2027?

1

59

59 forecasters

Will FURA introduce another cultivated meat dish on its menu before July 2027?

40% chance

53

53 forecasters

40%chance

What will India's total meat production per capita be during 2026-2027?

7.83 kg per capita (7.7 - 7.99)

1

52

52 forecasters

7.83 kg per capita

(7.7 - 7.99)

Will a new cultivated meat product receive regulatory approval for commercial sale before July 2027?

result: yes

1

61

61 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?

9% chance

17

122

122 forecasters

9%chance

Will plant-based meat and seafood reach 10% of US retail packaged meat dollar sales before 2031?

2% chance

1

64

64 forecasters

2%chance

A decrease in US meat production by 2025?

result: no

23

171

171 forecasters

ResolvedNo

How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years?

12

81

81 forecasters

By 2030, will there be a synthetic protein fiber costing less than nylon?

2.2% chance

2

12

12 forecasters

2.2%chance

When will a protein fiber spinning process be developed that works at industrial scale and is competitive with synthetic fibers for commercial use?

2031 (2028 - 2034)

1

1 forecaster

2031

(2028 - 2034)

What will be the average production cost per kg of cell-cultured chicken cell biomass at the end of the following years (between 2026-2051) across all large-scale plants in the world?

1

1 forecaster

Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?

41.5% chance

1

1 forecaster

41.5%chance

Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?

35% chance

3

3 forecasters

35%chance

Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"

0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)

2

2 forecasters

0.726 0-100% stated probability

(0.684 - 0.767)

If the price of the highest-quality hamburger-imitating plant products fell by 10% everywhere, how many more/fewer chickens would be consumed globally in the year 2030 (as a +/- percent)?

Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "the average production cost of cultured (chicken) per kg" by 2051

23.6 $ (12.3 - 38)

1

1 forecaster

23.6 $

(12.3 - 38)

When Will India Approve Its First Novel Food Application For A Cultivated Meat?

23 Dec 2026 (29 Jun 2026 - 19 Jun 2027)

1

1 forecaster

23 Dec 2026

(29 Jun 2026 - 19 Jun 2027)

When Will The EU Approve Its First Novel Food Application For Cultivated Meat?

23 Oct 2028 (28 Jul 2027 - 21 May 2030)

2

2 forecasters

23 Oct 2028

(28 Jul 2027 - 21 May 2030)