When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?Nov 2053 (Oct 2038 - 2096)584040 comments150150 forecastersNov 2053 (Oct 2038 - 2096)
When will the first person reach 150 years of age?2141 (2094 - 2198)51010 comments2121 forecasters2141 (2094 - 2198)
Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?13% chance31111 comments1616 forecasters13%chance
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?0.12 c (0.0156 - 0.351)61414 comments99 forecasters0.12 c (0.0156 - 0.351)
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?193 c (1.33 - 125k)91717 comments44 forecasters193 c (1.33 - 125k)
When will the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 be born?2158 (Jul 2004 - 2914)237373 comments202202 forecasters2158 (Jul 2004 - 2914)
Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?95% chance311010 comments147147 forecasters95%chance
What will be the mass in eV of the next fundamental particle to be discovered?376B eV (<100B - 113T)799 comments2626 forecasters376B eV (<100B - 113T)
By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?53.5% chance211515 comments106106 forecasters53.5%chance
What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?125 years (123 - 128)322727 comments155155 forecasters125 years (123 - 128)
Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?48% chance201919 comments7070 forecasters48%chance
What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?0.00229 c (8.35×10⁻⁴ - 0.00957)162020 comments7777 forecasters0.00229 c (8.35×10⁻⁴ - 0.00957)
Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?97% chance517474 comments453453 forecasters97%chance