Will the Trump administration issue a new binding rule tightening advanced-computing or semiconductor-equipment export controls for China before January 1, 2027?37% chance222 comments1212 forecasters37%chance
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?92525 comments260260 forecasters
If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?result: no61010 comments4545 forecastersResolvedNo
Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?63535 comments3737 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?198282 comments235235 forecasters
Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?62584584 comments1.2k1.2k forecasters
Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)?19143143 comments212212 forecasters
Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?62% chance172424 comments175175 forecasters62%chance
Will a U.S. cabinet agency award a $100m firm benefit after a $1m expenditure to a group or cryptocurrency linked to the president in the following years?255 comments105105 forecasters
In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average?36060 comments3030 forecasters
Will Joe Biden's autopen orders be declared 'null and void' before the 2026 midterms?0.5% chance22 comments2525 forecasters0.5%chance
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?5% chance12020 comments4343 forecasters5%chance
Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?result: yes61515 comments3131 forecastersResolvedYes
Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?20% chance141313 comments434434 forecasters20%chance
Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?14% chance15151 comments835835 forecasters14%chance
Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they became president at any point in the following years?0 comments136136 forecasters
If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?25% chance103434 comments145145 forecasters25%chance
Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?result: no262424 comments218218 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they became president at any point in the following years?322 comments153153 forecasters
Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states?41010 comments2929 forecasters