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Will the Trump administration issue a new binding rule tightening advanced-computing or semiconductor-equipment export controls for China before January 1, 2027?

33% chance

2

13

13 forecasters

33%chance

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they became president at any point in the following years?

163

163 forecasters

If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

25% chance

10

146

146 forecasters

25%chance

Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?

16% chance

14

436

436 forecasters

16%chance

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

19

235

235 forecasters

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

9

261

261 forecasters

Will a U.S. cabinet agency award a $100m firm benefit after a $1m expenditure to a group or cryptocurrency linked to the president in the following years?

2

107

107 forecasters

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

6

37

37 forecasters

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

result: no

6

45

45 forecasters

ResolvedNo

In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average?

3

30

30 forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

312

3.9k 3.9k comments

3.6k

3.6k forecasters

Will the Vice President be sworn in as President after January 21, 2025 and before January 14, 2029?

15% chance

5

61

61 forecasters

15%chance

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

63% chance

17

176

176 forecasters

63%chance

Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?

4% chance

847

847 forecasters

4%chance

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

62

584 584 comments

1.2k

1.2k forecasters

Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?

4

60

60 forecasters

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

5% chance

1

43

43 forecasters

5%chance

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

result: yes

6

31

31 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

14% chance

1

835

835 forecasters

14%chance

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)?

19

143 143 comments

212

212 forecasters

Will Joe Biden's autopen orders be declared 'null and void' before the 2026 midterms?

0.6% chance

26

26 forecasters

0.6%chance

Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024?

result: no

2

23

23 forecasters

ResolvedNo