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Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

9

251

251 forecasters

Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

23% chance

1

822

822 forecasters

23%chance

If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

35% chance

10

141

141 forecasters

35%chance

Will the next U.S. President have a beard or mustache when elected?

10% chance

3

22

22 forecasters

10%chance

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

50% chance

9

95

95 forecasters

50%chance

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

62

584 584 comments

1.2k

1.2k forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they became president at any point in the following years?

50

50 forecasters

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

5

37

37 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they became president at any point in the following years?

3

149

149 forecasters

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

64% chance

25

2k

2k forecasters

64%chance

By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?

result: yes

8

47

47 forecasters

ResolvedYes

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

19

235

235 forecasters

Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?

20% chance

14

431

431 forecasters

20%chance

Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?

3

59

59 forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)?

19

143 143 comments

212

212 forecasters

How many months in prison will Hunter Biden be sentenced to before 2026?

<1 months (<1 - <1)

4

21

21 forecasters

ResolvedLess than 1 months

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

result: no

6

45

45 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

5% chance

1

42

42 forecasters

5%chance

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

312

3.9k 3.9k comments

3.6k

3.6k forecasters

Will a U.S. cabinet agency award a $100m firm benefit after a $1m expenditure to a group or cryptocurrency linked to the president in the following years?

1

98

98 forecasters

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

result: yes

6

31

31 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?

result: yes

11

114

114 forecasters

ResolvedYes