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Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

24% chance

1

818

818 forecasters

24%chance

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they became president at any point in the following years?

3

3 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

19

235

235 forecasters

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

5

37

37 forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

312

3.9k 3.9k comments

3.6k

3.6k forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

61

584 584 comments

1.2k

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

7

242

242 forecasters

Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states?

4

29

29 forecasters

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

result: no

6

45

45 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

result: yes

6

31

31 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)?

20

143 143 comments

212

212 forecasters

In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average?

3

30

30 forecasters

If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

30% chance

10

143

143 forecasters

30%chance

Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?

20% chance

14

427

427 forecasters

20%chance

If inaugurated as President in 2025, will these 2024 presidential candidates complete a full four-year term?

7

71

71 forecasters

By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?

result: yes

8

47

47 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will a U.S. cabinet agency award a $100m firm benefit after a $1m expenditure to a group or cryptocurrency linked to the president in the following years?

1

91

91 forecasters

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

51% chance

9

96

96 forecasters

51%chance

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

result: no

104 104 comments

106

106 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?

8% chance

833

833 forecasters

8%chance

Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?

result: no

26

218

218 forecasters

ResolvedNo

How many months in prison will Hunter Biden be sentenced to before 2026?

<1 months (<1 - <1)

4

21

21 forecasters

<1 months

(<1 - <1)

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

61% chance

25

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

61%chance

Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?

result: no

26

165

165 forecasters

ResolvedNo