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Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

5

37

37 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

19

235

235 forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

312

3.9k 3.9k comments

3.6k

3.6k forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

61

584 584 comments

1.2k

1.2k forecasters

In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average?

3

30

30 forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)?

19

143 143 comments

212

212 forecasters

Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states?

4

29

29 forecasters

Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?

20% chance

14

430

430 forecasters

20%chance

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

result: no

6

45

45 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

9

246

246 forecasters

Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

21% chance

1

820

820 forecasters

21%chance

Will a U.S. cabinet agency award a $100m firm benefit after a $1m expenditure to a group or cryptocurrency linked to the president in the following years?

1

97

97 forecasters

What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?

1.9 (1.49 - 2.2)

3

113

113 forecasters

Resolved2.2

Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?

result: yes

26

26 forecasters

ResolvedYes

By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?

result: yes

8

47

47 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?

3

57

57 forecasters

Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?

result: yes

26

26 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024?

6

41

41 forecasters

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

result: yes

6

31

31 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?

result: no

26

26 forecasters

ResolvedNo

What will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?

40% chance

1

8

8 forecasters

Annulled

What will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?

56% chance

8

8 forecasters

Annulled