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US Democracy Index

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Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

106 forecasters

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

35 comments

37 forecasters

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

Jack Smith (special counsel)result: No

Barack Obamaresult: No

Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)result: No

1 comment

15 forecasters

Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democratic Party55.7%

Republican Party44.2%

Other0.1%

82 comments

235 forecasters

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes

Kamala Harris (D)result: No

Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled

3.9k comments

3.6k forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

584 comments

1.2k forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Kamala Harrisresult: Yes

Joe Bidenresult: No

Gavin Newsomresult: No

3 comments

115 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

18%chance

12% this week

60 comments

30 forecasters

In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average?

143 comments

212 forecasters

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)?

Tim Walzresult: Yes

Gina Raimondoresult: No

Jeff Jacksonresult: No