What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years?1177 comments104104 forecasters
When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?Apr 2065 (Oct 2056 - 2089)191414 comments7373 forecastersApr 2065 (Oct 2056 - 2089)
When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?Nov 2053 (Oct 2038 - 2096)584040 comments150150 forecastersNov 2053 (Oct 2038 - 2096)
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence? → Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?44 comments77 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will there be widely available radical life extension treatment?60% chance1244 comments9696 forecasters60%chance
When will any type of dog have a life expectancy at birth of 30 years or more?Nov 2073 (Dec 2053 - 2097)1222 comments3737 forecastersNov 2073 (Dec 2053 - 2097)
What will the age-adjusted mortality rate be in England and Wales in 2051?815 per 100,000 (590 - 1025)233 comments99 forecasters815 per 100,000 (590 - 1025)
When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?Nov 2058 (Jun 2046 - >Jan 2075)2999 comments107107 forecastersNov 2058 (Jun 2046 - >Jan 2075)
What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge?1.37 years (0.902 - 1.84)544 comments2424 forecasters1.37 years (0.902 - 1.84)
By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?53.5% chance211515 comments106106 forecasters53.5%chance
What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?125 years (123 - 128)322727 comments155155 forecasters125 years (123 - 128)
How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?2.86 years (1.31 - 4.14)1699 comments4545 forecasters2.86 years (1.31 - 4.14)
Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?48% chance201919 comments7070 forecasters48%chance
Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?52.8% chance342828 comments163163 forecasters52.8%chance
What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan?05 Feb 2026 (08 Aug 2023 - 13 Jan 2030)333 comments3131 forecasters05 Feb 2026 (08 Aug 2023 - 13 Jan 2030)
Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?25.3k years (568 - 8.56M)292323 comments165165 forecasters25.3k years (568 - 8.56M)
Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?97% chance517474 comments453453 forecasters97%chance
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?30% chance139270270 comments1.6k1.6k forecasters30%chance