Will Israel or the United States conduct a military strike on Iranian territory between October 29 and October 30, 2026?result: no308308 comments307307 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Pete Hegseth still be serving as U.S. Secretary of Defense on November 12, 2026?0 comments234234 forecasters%chance
Will the U.S. naval blockade halting Iran's seaborne crude oil exports still be in effect on October 15, 2026?result: yes242242 comments237237 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the US conduct a new military strike inside Iranian territory between October 15 and October 16, 2026?result: no236236 comments234234 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the United States resume its air campaign against Iran before December 1, 2026?50.7% chance0 comments33 forecasters50.7%chance
Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before December 2026?2% chance22 comments66 forecasters2%chance
What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on the eve of Election Day 2026?56.9% (55.9 - 58.3)11 comment1818 forecasters56.9% (55.9 - 58.3)
Will US and Iranian negotiators meet in person in November or December 2026?222 comments6666 forecasters%chance
Will Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian personally deliver Iran's statement at the UNGA 81 general debate (22–28 September 2026)?result: yes175175 comments181181 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the US conduct a military strike inside Iranian territory on October 1 or October 2, 2026?result: no168168 comments174174 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the United States detonate a nuclear weapon in Iran before December 1, 2026?50% chance0 comments44 forecasters50%chance
Will Israel withdraw behind the original Yellow Line in Gaza before January 1, 2027?1% chance11 comment111111 forecasters1%chance
Will the US approve a $10B exchange stabilisation facility for Pakistan before 2027?4% chance188 comments105105 forecasters4%chance
What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on October 15, 2026?59.3% (57.7 - 64.3)122 comments2323 forecastersResolved56.23125%
Will the Strait of Hormuz return to normal commercial traffic before December 1, 2026?15% chance0 comments88 forecasters15%chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?34% chance606969 comments534534 forecasters34%chance
How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026?1010 comments44 forecasters
When will the United States remove the following countries as State Sponsors of Terrorism?0 comments22 forecasters
What will be the open market US Dollar/Iranian Toman exchange rate on December 31, 2026?>250k Iranian Toman (>250k - >250k)199 comments134134 forecasters>250k Iranian Toman (>250k - >250k)