Will the Strait of Hormuz Monitor show the strait continuously closed through August 31, 2026?80.2% chance0 comments171171 forecasters80.2%chance
Will the Lebanese Armed Forces deploy to the initial two pilot zones in southern Lebanon before September 2026?96.1% chance51818 comments9696 forecasters96.1%chance
What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?11919 comments162162 forecasters
Will Iran's Bushehr Unit 1 reactor be publicly reported as offline (shut down or disconnected from the grid) at any point between July 11 and July 23, 2026?result: no129129 comments125125 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Iran allow IAEA inspectors on-site access to any of its uranium enrichment facilities on or before July 24, 2026?result: no128128 comments128128 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the US reinstate a broad general license authorizing Iranian oil exports before July 24, 2026?result: no126126 comments126126 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a US–Iran ceasefire be in effect on July 23, 2026?result: no118118 comments120120 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the United States and Iran hold direct, in-person talks between July 11 and July 23, 2026?result: no121121 comments121121 forecastersResolvedNo
What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on August 14, 2026?59.3% (56.7 - 62)0 comments153153 forecasters59.3% (56.7 - 62)
Will the IMO announce it has resumed its paused Strait of Hormuz seafarer evacuation operation before August 7, 2026?18% chance0 comments137137 forecasters18%chance
What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on August 14, 2026?58.8% (57.3 - 61)0 comments77 forecasters58.8% (57.3 - 61)
Will the FAO Food Price Index reach a new yearly high for July 2026?28% chance0 comments151151 forecasters28%chance
Will Vladimir Putin visit Iran before September 1, 2026?26.7% chance0 comments151151 forecasters26.7%chance
Will the Lebanese Armed Forces deploy to the initial two pilot zones in southern Lebanon before September 2026?31.5% chance0 comments149149 forecasters31.5%chance
How many deaths from Operation Epic Fury will the U.S. government officially report on August 31, 2026?0 comments22 forecasters
Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?15% chance244 comments747747 forecasters15%chance
Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection at any of Iran's Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan nuclear sites before September 1, 2026?15% chance0 comments145145 forecasters15%chance
When will the term of Israel's 25th Knesset end?28 Aug 2026 (18 Jul 2026 05:23 - 11 Oct 2026)122 comments4545 forecastersResolved17 Jul 2026 12:00 UTC
How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the US-Israel-Iran war over the course of 2026?77 comments22 forecasters
Will a newly constructed oil or natural gas pipeline intended to bypass the Strait of Hormuz become fully operational before January 1, 2031?80% chance11010 comments2323 forecasters80%chance
What will be the price of Brent crude on August 28, 2026?89.6 $ (81.9 - 97.1)0 comments7979 forecasters89.6 $ (81.9 - 97.1)
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026?result: yes45050 comments157157 forecastersResolvedYes