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Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?
73%
82 forecasters
6
22 comments
22
Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?
63%
48 forecasters
7
16 comments
16
When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?
08 Jul 2025
1005 forecasters
73
122 comments
122
Effective Institutions Project
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
0 or 1
41.05%
2 or 3
38.48%
4 or 5
12.86%
3 others
8
2 comments
2
Future of AI
What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates?
June 30, 2023
69.6%
June 30, 2024
91.1
June 30, 2025
97.2
20
33 comments
33
AI Technical Benchmarks
Will Elon Musk become the first trillionaire?
26%
295 forecasters
28
76 comments
76
What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?
June 30, 2025
94.5
June 30, 2024
88.7%
June 30, 2023
86.4%
12
39 comments
39
AI Technical Benchmarks
What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?
The case is settled
54.25%
OpenAI & Microsoft Win
26.61%
NYT Wins ≥$50 Million
10.23%
2 others
15
22 comments
22
Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?
49%
21 percentage points this week
55 forecasters
9
9 comments
9
Business of AI
When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?
10 Jul 2025
95 forecasters
18
26 comments
26
Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee
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