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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
5 comments
157 forecasters

Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?

97.5%chance
28 comments
407 forecasters

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%chance
629 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
Sep 2033
563 comments
1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
22 Sep 2027
45 comments
378 forecasters

When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?

Current estimate
Aug 2043
81 comments
624 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance
184 comments
618 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

30%chance
5% this week
239 comments
778 forecasters

Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?

3%chance
251 comments
1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

29%chance
4% this week
21 comments
301 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

26%chance