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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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98 comments
389 forecasters

Elon Musk Becomes World's First Trillionaire

88%chance
3% this week
12 comments
179 forecasters

AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?

98%chance

Key Factors

  • Bots' strong performance in recent Metaculus Cup
  • More tournaments increase AI's chances
  • One AI victory suffices for prediction win
270 comments
1.6k forecasters

Someone Born before 2001 Lives to 150?

28%chance

Key Factors

  • Genetics restricts lifespan for large population subset
  • Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.
  • Up to 50% of all variation in lifespan may be due to genetic factors, indicating a significant but not exclusive role of genetics in determining longevity.
22 comments
329 forecasters

AI catastrophe to cause (near) extinction

30%chance
45 comments
468 forecasters

GC to be caused by AI, if it occurs?

27%chance
5 comments
118 forecasters

US Congress Control After 2026 Midterms

Dem Senate / Dem House39.3%
Rep Senate / Rep House11.8%
Dem Senate / Rep House1.5%
Rep Senate / Dem House47.4%

Key Factors

  • Structural asymmetry between the Senate and House in 2026
42 comments
1.9k forecasters

US Military Response to Invasion of Taiwan?

61%chance
28 comments
430 forecasters

US-Russia War before 2050

8.5%chance
15 comments
61 forecasters

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Howard Lutnick3%
Pam Bondi2%
Pete Hegseth1.5%
Other Cabinet Memberresult: Yes
4 others
653 comments
1.9k forecasters

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

Current estimate
Jan 2033

Key Factors

  • โ†‘ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
  • AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting)
  • AI demonstrates the ability to apply knowledge from training to novel or unseen scenarios without crashing or failing
37 comments
628 forecasters

US-China war before 2035?

12%chance

Key Factors

  • Plausible war pathways US-CHINA
608 comments
1.7k forecasters

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

Current estimate
01 Jun 2028

Key Factors

  • โ†‘ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
  • China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI
  • โ†“ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes
191 comments
698 forecasters

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?

8%chance

Key Factors

  • Deterrence against israel
  • Political will to maintain the threat of strikes
  • Stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium likely unaffected by strikes
86 comments
268 forecasters

By 2050 Genetic Engineering to Raise IQ

67%chance
84 comments
645 forecasters

Sustainable Off-Earth Human Colony by 2100

40%chance
172 comments
275 forecasters

Which AI world before 2050?

AI-Fizzle9.3%
Futurama35.4%
AI-Dystopia29.1%
Singularia17.5%
Paperclipalypse8.7%
67 comments
1.8k forecasters

US National Abortion Ban before 2030?

3%chance

Key Factors

  • Donald Trump has stated that abortion policy should be set by the states, and his vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, has expressed opposition to a national abortion ban.
  • The Heritage Foundation, along with more than 100 anti-abortion and other extremist organizations, has issued Project 2025, a plan that includes using federal government aspects to destroy access to abortion.
  • In 2024, 166 House Republicans, roughly three-quarters of the conference, signed on to legislation for a nationwide abortion ban, indicating strong support within the party.
23 comments
424 forecasters

Global Population Decline >10% by 2100

39%chance
114 comments
684 forecasters

Date Putin Exits Presidency of Russia

Current estimate
28 Dec 2029
76 comments
639 forecasters

Date AIs Capable of Developing AI Software

Current estimate
06 Feb 2028
203 comments
1.1k forecasters

Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?

50%chance
74 comments
448 forecasters

Progress in Human Longevity by 2100

97%chance
387 comments
963 forecasters

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan?

69 comments
530 forecasters

At least 1 Nuclear Detonation in War by 2050

35%chance