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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

Political will to maintain the threat of strikes

30%chance
6% this week

Key Factor

Political will to maintain the threat of strikes

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Feb 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

20 Apr 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

26 Aug 2025

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
and 17 others

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.5%chance

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

Will the Universe end?

67%chance
7% this week