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Artificial Intelligence
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251
comments
1.5k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
28%
chance
234
comments
751
forecasters
Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?
3%
chance
559
comments
1.7k
forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
27 May 2027
188
comments
2.7k
forecasters
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
96%
chance
375
comments
859
forecasters
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
622
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Oct 2033
89
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?
22%
chance
122
comments
580
forecasters
How much global warming by 2100?
Current estimate
3.16 °C
20
comments
287
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
24%
chance
169
comments
243
forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama
30%
AI-Dystopia
23.7%
Singularia
18.9%
2 others
27%
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