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132 forecasters

Will China land the next person on the Moon?

50%chance

9% this week

Key Factors

567 comments

1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

27 Nov 2027

Key Factors

1.4k forecasters

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

10%chance

Key Factors

626 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

378 comments

885 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

254 comments

1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

25%chance

Key Factors

125 comments

585 forecasters

How much global warming by 2100?

Current estimate

3.14 °C

255 forecasters

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

65%chance

436 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance

1.5k forecasters

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

60%chance