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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

AI become student of arts university in Vienna

Key Factor

AI become student of arts university in Vienna

Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

Key Factor

Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans

Key Factor

Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

AI-Dystopia25.7%

Singularia16.6%

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

Political will to maintain the threat of strikes

Key Factor

Political will to maintain the threat of strikes

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?