Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
5
comments
157
forecasters
Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?
97.5%
chance
28
comments
407
forecasters
Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?
10%
chance
629
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Sep 2033
563
comments
1.7k
forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
22 Sep 2027
45
comments
378
forecasters
When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?
Current estimate
Aug 2043
81
comments
624
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
40%
chance
184
comments
618
forecasters
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?
30%
chance
5%
this week
239
comments
778
forecasters
Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?
3%
chance
251
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
29%
chance
4%
this week
21
comments
301
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
26%
chance
Load More