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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

Political will to maintain the threat of strikes

Key Factor

Political will to maintain the threat of strikes

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?