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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

Political will to maintain the threat of strikes

30%chance
6% this week

Key Factor

Political will to maintain the threat of strikes

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jan 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

20 Apr 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

26 Aug 2025

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

23%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

1%chance

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.5%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10%chance