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Artificial Intelligence
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270
comments
2.9k
forecasters
Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?
22%
chance
Key Factors
AGI/ASI coming soon
Trends of de-escalation since WWII due to globalisation, culture shift, and nuclear deterrence
China-US conflict over Taiwan will happen not happen on the ground
125
comments
583
forecasters
How much global warming by 2100?
Current estimate
3.18 °C
565
comments
1.7k
forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
10 Nov 2027
Key Factors
China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings
253
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
26%
chance
Key Factors
Alzheimer's hampers developments in radical life extension
Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.
Genetics restricts lifespan for large population subset
41
comments
1.5k
forecasters
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?
60%
chance
374
comments
1.7k
forecasters
Will humans go extinct before 2100?
1%
chance
Key Factors
Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans
22
comments
39
forecasters
What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?
The case is settled
51.2%
OpenAI & Microsoft Win
23.7%
NYT Wins ≥$50 Million
13.1%
2 others
12%
21
comments
305
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%
chance
630
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
Key Factors
AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting)
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
Someone solves the alignment problem (I'd hope timelines are longer without this & shorter with it)
44
comments
434
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%
chance
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