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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

Political will to maintain the threat of strikes

Key Factor

Political will to maintain the threat of strikes

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

Will the Universe end?