alt

Predictions3754

Comments141

Member SinceJuly 2020

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by alt

11 comments

91 forecasters

Which party will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Other

Labour Party

77.3%

Green Party

21.7%

Key Factors

Galloway entry could split Green anti-Labour vote
Labour win projected in PollCheck's model
bbc.co.uk:
Zack Polanski to be Green Party candidate for Keir Starmer's old seat

2 comments

13 forecasters

Who will win the 2026–2027 Premier League?

Arsenal

55.3%

Chelsea

8.1%

Liverpool

7.1%

Manchester City

23.7%

16 others

Key Factors

Arsenal loses 3-0 to Brighton

4 comments

14 forecasters

Will Nigel Farage cease to be the Leader of Reform UK before 1 January, 2030?

45%chance

9 comments

87 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Spain

result: Yes

Argentina

44.2%

Germany

0.1%

Brazil

0.1%

5 others

9 comments

15 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

France

Annulled

Spain

Annulled

Brazil

Annulled

Argentina

Annulled

44 others

5 comments

14 forecasters

Will the United States support Argentine claims of sovereignty over the Malvinas/Falkland Islands before 2030?

31%chance

7% this week

Key Factors

theguardian.com:
Javier Milei: ‘winds of change’ support Argentina’s claim to Falkland Islands
independent.co.uk:
US considers new ultimatum to UK over Falklands
bbc.co.uk:
Trump says US position on Falklands 'one of many' under review

16 comments

41 forecasters

Will the Cuban government lose power before 2027?

15.4%chance

Key Factors

Fin de la guerra en Irán
Oil delivery from Russia resumes
bbc.co.uk:
Russian oil tanker reaches Cuba as US blockade seemingly loosened

13 comments

28 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 FIA Formula One World Drivers' Championship?

Charles Leclerc

0.5%

Lewis Hamilton

2.1%

George Russell

Kimi Antonelli

92.2%

19 others

Key Factors

Pressure might affect Kimi's performance
bbc.co.uk:
Chinese Grand Prix 2026: Kimi Antonelli wins ahead of Russell
formula1.com:
Bahrain and Saudi Arabian GPs will not take place in April

20 comments

156 forecasters

Will the United States gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026?

1%chance

Key Factors

theguardian.com:
Trump ramps up Greenland threats and says US will intervene ‘whether they like it or not’
lemonde.fr:
Trump demands 'immediate negotiations' to acquire Greenland but 'won't use force'

13 comments

33 forecasters

Labour Party leadership election before 2027?

resultYes

9 comments

5 forecasters

Will Australia retain the Ashes in the 2025–2026 Test series?

resultYes

6 comments

42 forecasters

Who will win the 2025–2026 Premier League?

Arsenal

result: Yes

Aston Villa

0.1%

A.F.C. Bournemouth

0.1%

Manchester City

14.7%

16 others

11 comments

14 forecasters

Will resident doctors in England receive a further pay increase before 2026?

resultNo

6 comments

5 forecasters

Which party will win the 2025 Runcorn and Helsby by-election?

Labour

54.8%

Reform UK

result: Yes

Conservative

3.2%

Green

0.2%

2 others

15 comments

25 forecasters

Will assisted dying for terminally ill adults be legal for the majority of United Kingdom residents before 2030?

6%chance

Key Factors

Implementation period extends timeline
Bill running out of time in this session
theguardian.com:
MPs vote against legalising assisted dying in England and Wales