Sergio
Predictions49038
Comments671
Member SinceDecember 2020
Tournaments
Market Pulse Challenge 26Q1Rank: #2 out of 187
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025Rank: #1 out of 594
Metaculus Cup Spring 2026Rank: #8 out of 1260
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025Rank: #2 out of 637
Keep Virginia Safe IIRank: #1 out of 220
Real-Time Pandemic Decision MakingRank: #2 out of 137
Economist 2021Rank: #4 out of 542
Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2025Rank: #8 out of 3214
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24Rank: #1 out of 212
🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆Rank: #1 out of 620
📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰Rank: #3 out of 905
ACX 2023 Prediction ContestRank: #6 out of 1352
🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆Rank: #6 out of 838
Keep Virginia Safe TournamentRank: #1 out of 217
FluSight Challenge 2022/23Rank: #1 out of 50
Conditional CupRank: #2 out of 352
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25Rank: #1 out of 477
🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆Rank: #4 out of 1002
🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆Rank: #3 out of 373
Biosecurity Tournament Short-TermRank: #1 out of 277
Global Trends 2022Rank: #2 out of 1782
Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026Rank: #2 out of 2869
Future PerfectRank: #12 out of 3064
Metaculus Cup Summer 2026Rank: #10 out of 881
🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆Rank: #14 out of 756
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2Rank: #12 out of 343
ACX 2025 Prediction ContestRank: #64 out of 2988
🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆Rank: #17 out of 714
Nuclear Risk TournamentRank: #16 out of 669
Ukraine ConflictRank: #101 out of 3902
Fiscal Showdown 2025Rank: #9 out of 259
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3Rank: #5 out of 156
Peer Accuracy
2016 - 2025Rank: #51 out of 9171
2021 - 2025Rank: #4 out of 7103
2024 - 2025Rank: #8 out of 4762
2022 - 2023Rank: #5 out of 5230
2020 - 2021Rank: #9 out of 2750
2021 - 2022Rank: #6 out of 2984
2023 - 2024Rank: #17 out of 3549
2022Rank: #8 out of 4164
2023Rank: #10 out of 3409
2021Rank: #1 out of 2053
2024Rank: #31 out of 3948
2025Rank: #183 out of 8769
Baseline Accuracy
2021 - 2025Rank: #23 out of 7103
2024 - 2025Rank: #7 out of 4762
2021 - 2022Rank: #13 out of 2984
2022 - 2023Rank: #24 out of 5230
2020 - 2021Rank: #24 out of 2750
2023 - 2024Rank: #26 out of 3549
2023Rank: #4 out of 3409
2025Rank: #3 out of 8770
2022Rank: #17 out of 4165
2021Rank: #20 out of 2053
2024Rank: #7 out of 3948
2016 - 2025Rank: #116 out of 9171
Question Writing
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