150.136 | Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped) | Continuous |
117.178 | How many Palestinian prisoners/detainees will Israel announce that it will release before 2024? | Continuous |
98.614 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba) | Binary |
98.407 | Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
98.380 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa) | Binary |
98.270 | Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema) | Binary |
98.223 | Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024? | Binary |
96.774 | Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024? | Binary |
96.589 | Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023? | Binary |
96.354 | Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
96.337 | Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
96.278 | Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024? | Binary |
96.060 | Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024? | Binary |
96.006 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024? | Binary |
95.695 | Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
95.645 | Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history? | Binary |
95.327 | Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
94.027 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
93.984 | Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India? | Binary |
93.958 | Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
93.566 | ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023? | Binary |
92.887 | Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th? | Binary |
91.397 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023) | Binary |
91.253 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023? | Binary |
90.635 | Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023? | Binary |
89.628 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023? | Binary |
88.678 | Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024? | Binary |
88.648 | Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place? | Binary |
88.116 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
87.816 | Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023? | Binary |
87.363 | Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024? | Binary |
84.600 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024? | Binary |
83.087 | Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela? | Binary |
82.995 | Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023? | Binary |
82.633 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Binary |
81.559 | Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
81.162 | Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th? | Binary |
80.222 | Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023? | Binary |
79.757 | Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
79.695 | Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself? | Binary |
79.509 | Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate? | Binary |
79.358 | Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29? | Binary |
77.990 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024? | Binary |
77.878 | Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023? | Binary |
77.688 | Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions? | Binary |
77.153 | Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st? | Binary |
75.449 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023? | Binary |
74.729 | Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning? | Binary |
72.797 | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |
71.534 | Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023? | Binary |
71.135 | What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023? | Continuous |
68.657 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023? | Binary |
65.688 | Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023? | Binary |
64.539 | Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023? | Binary |
60.776 | Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election? | Binary |
60.341 | Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023? | Binary |
60.187 | Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
58.686 | Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
58.351 | Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
57.317 | Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days? | Binary |
56.712 | Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
55.356 | Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023? | Binary |
54.750 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
53.927 | Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023? | Binary |
52.927 | Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023? | Binary |
48.904 | In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012? | Binary |
47.685 | Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
46.256 | Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
45.408 | Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024? | Binary |
42.804 | How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT? | Continuous |
42.335 | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023? | Binary |
41.342 | Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class? | Binary |
40.732 | Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time? | Binary |
40.269 | Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023? | Binary |
37.062 | Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023? | Binary |
36.568 | Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023? | Binary |
33.404 | Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023? | Binary |
31.974 | Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
31.536 | Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election? | Binary |
30.669 | Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
26.609 | Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor) | Continuous |
23.963 | Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage? | Binary |
23.315 | Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List? | Binary |
19.878 | Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize? | Binary |
14.322 | Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote? | Binary |
13.044 | Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024? | Binary |
12.132 | Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon? | Binary |
11.968 | Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023? | Binary |
10.149 | Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023? | Binary |
8.312 | Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024? | Binary |
5.786 | Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023? | Binary |
3.924 | Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
2.536 | Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024? | Binary |
1.056 | Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022? | Binary |
- | Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow? | Binary |
- | Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election? | Binary |
-0.671 | Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel? | Binary |
-3.137 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023? | Binary |
-4.492 | Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)? | Binary |
-7.318 | Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
-12.065 | Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
-18.931 | Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-20.467 | Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-37.019 | What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections? | Continuous |
-39.762 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
-43.683 | Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended? | Binary |
-44.022 | Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-66.082 | Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024? | Binary |
-67.320 | Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023? | Binary |
-68.688 | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight? | Binary |
-72.967 | Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023? | Binary |
-74.948 | Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
-78.294 | Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election? | Binary |
-105.853 | Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024? | Binary |