Zweihander

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

10.89	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
126.488	How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023?	Continuous
117.650	When will the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) 2.0 rule-making process conclude?	Continuous
111.561	How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024?	Continuous
96.646	How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024?	Continuous
73.825	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
65.665	How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024?	Continuous
63.556	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
53.093	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
49.498	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
40.635	In Project for Awesome 2023, how much money will be granted to EA charities?	Continuous
35.953	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
33.490	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
30.911	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
29.781	How much total trade volume (in 2021 USD) will Israel and Turkey trade in 2022?	Continuous
29.017	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
27.610	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
27.085	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
26.578	What will be the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage in 2022?	Continuous
24.847	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
22.332	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
21.557	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
21.124	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
19.076	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
18.495	In Project for Awesome 2023, how many videos will be made for EA charities?	Continuous
18.179	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.762	What will be the number of unmanned aircraft sightings (UAS) in 2022?	Continuous
17.098	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
16.573	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
15.927	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
15.476	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
14.287	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.716	When will the next major bridge collapse occur in the USA?	Continuous
13.640	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
13.130	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
12.596	Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?	Binary
12.457	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
11.314	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
10.828	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
10.411	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
10.201	What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?	Continuous
10.189	Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?	Binary
9.860	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
9.679	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
9.070	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
8.955	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
8.898	Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
8.789	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
7.355	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
6.436	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
6.137	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
6.035	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
6.011	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
5.857	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
5.830	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
5.807	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
5.131	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
4.284	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
4.223	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
4.210	Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?	Binary
3.436	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
2.662	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation)	Binary
2.421	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.661	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
1.506	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
1.181	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.498	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
-0.002	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
-0.011	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
-0.060	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
-0.293	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
-0.639	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy)	Binary
-1.021	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.326	How many satellites will be deployed in 2022?	Continuous
-1.343	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
-1.384	Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?	Binary
-2.647	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
-3.005	In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell?	Continuous
-3.194	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
-3.919	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-4.139	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment)	Binary
-4.980	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
-5.739	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-6.444	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
-6.765	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
-6.939	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline)	Binary
-9.599	How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024?	Continuous
-10.153	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
-11.679	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
-12.447	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
-12.629	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
-13.660	How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022?	Continuous
-14.330	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
-14.583	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-15.971	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
-16.667	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-18.233	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
-19.008	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
-21.127	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking)	Binary
-22.599	How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023?	Continuous
-28.400	When will New York City's subway ridership return to pre-COVID pandemic levels for the first time?	Continuous
-31.567	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
-37.923	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
-50.011	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary