kenakofer

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

6.088	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
54.897	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
39.772	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
30.662	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
22.947	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
21.638	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
21.570	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
21.050	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
20.989	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
20.043	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
16.919	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
16.354	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
15.868	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
13.892	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
13.704	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.877	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
12.872	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
10.999	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
9.288	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
8.894	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
8.243	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
7.796	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
7.451	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
7.052	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
6.980	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
6.808	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
6.695	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
6.661	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
6.106	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
5.692	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
5.573	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
5.566	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.539	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
5.509	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
5.092	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.885	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
4.360	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
4.125	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
3.937	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.897	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
2.958	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
2.957	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
2.642	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
2.320	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
2.184	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
2.149	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
1.961	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
1.863	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
1.375	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
1.252	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
0.928	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
0.770	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
0.540	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
0.524	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
0.461	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.359	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
0.314	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
0.078	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
-0.493	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
-0.499	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
-1.086	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
-4.264	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
-5.270	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
-8.387	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-14.563	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
-16.141	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
-19.409	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
-21.143	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-23.590	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary