| 35.556 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 34.554 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
| 22.440 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Binary |
| 20.716 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
| 17.187 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 15.271 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 12.632 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
| 9.749 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 8.423 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
| 8.290 | Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 8.190 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 7.585 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
| 5.475 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 5.152 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.876 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 4.804 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
| 3.779 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | Binary |
| 3.599 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
| 3.519 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.415 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 3.226 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 3.183 | On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? | Binary |
| 3.088 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
| 2.931 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
| 2.898 | In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? | Binary |
| 2.550 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | Binary |
| 2.508 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? | Binary |
| 1.811 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 1.739 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.572 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.527 | Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.453 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.413 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
| 1.317 | Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.234 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 1.185 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.094 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
| 0.817 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 0.560 | Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.073 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
| 0.057 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant) | Binary |
| 0.047 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
| 0.026 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
| 0.022 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
| 0.022 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
| 0.014 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
| 0.000 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May) | Binary |
| -0.603 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
| -9.867 | In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? | Binary |