Stilico

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

8.092	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
53.708	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
24.540	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
23.101	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
22.649	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
21.201	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
20.727	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
20.392	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
18.925	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.252	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
17.035	What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
14.095	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
14.012	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
11.961	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
10.478	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.791	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
9.596	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
8.116	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
8.038	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
7.874	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.754	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
7.383	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
6.962	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
6.746	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
6.346	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
5.909	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
5.670	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
5.651	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.432	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
5.336	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
5.240	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
5.206	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
4.783	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
4.451	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
4.107	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
4.104	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.969	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
3.577	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
3.036	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
3.019	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
2.822	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
2.674	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
2.237	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
2.094	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
2.091	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
2.045	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
1.754	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
1.506	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
1.484	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
1.342	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
1.053	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.949	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
0.906	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
0.521	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.345	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.131	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
-0.409	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-0.459	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary